TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.96×

WSH @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph slight_out 58°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

+0 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +2

Best of game Riley Greene conv 22 · vs Proxy ⟷ Dylan Crews conv 15 · vs Proxy → edge: James Wood

ATTACK WSH Bullpen Proxy · WSH

leak 64

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Riley Greene — C+ ●●●○○

2 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●●○○

FADE DET Bullpen Proxy · DET

leak 43

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dylan Crews — D ●●○○○

2 Daylen Lile — D ●●○○○

3 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 17.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Proxy — 0.198 · 90.3 · 15.1% 23.1% 21.1% F B O C+ 61

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Proxy — 0.193 · 89.5 · 12.2% 22.2% 20.8% F B O C 56

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Proxy — 0.207 · 88.6 · 9.9% 12.5% 13.3% F B O C 53

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.249 · 95.2 · 19.4% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C+ 69

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Proxy — 0.227 · 89.6 · 9.8% 0.0% 13.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Proxy — 0.166 · 89.6 · 8.9% 22.2% 15.7% F B O D 49

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Proxy — 0.151 · 90.2 · 9.3% 20.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Proxy — 0.187 · 88.6 · 9.6% 11.1% 15.7% F B O D 48

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Proxy — 0.169 · 88.0 · 4.9% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 39

· DET Colt Keith vs Proxy — 0.148 · 88.7 · 7.6% 10.0% 10.8% F B O D 42

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Proxy — 0.149 · 88.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 41

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Proxy — 0.107 · 86.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 35

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Proxy — 0.141 · 87.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 35

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Proxy — 0.095 · 85.7 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 27

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Proxy — 0.086 · 82.9 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Proxy — 0.034 · 84.9 · 0.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for DET Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for WSH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Lile Crews Greene Torkelson Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Riley Greene — · 61

Spencer Torkelson — · 56

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph slight_out 58°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

58°F

6:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

57°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

56°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

55°F

9:40p

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

55°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 58°F, wind 9 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs DET Bullpen Proxy 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 69 C+ — COOL 1 0.249 95.2 19.4% 34.1% 413 22.7% 0.0% 17.2% 25

2 Cj Abrams 53 C — · 9 0.227 89.6 9.8% 18.4% 396 30.8% 0.0% 13.5% 30

3 Daylen Lile 48 D — WARM 14 0.187 88.6 9.6% 10.9% 401 11.7% 11.1% 15.7% 26

4 Dylan Crews 45 D — COOL 17 0.151 90.2 9.3% 12.4% 405 13.8% 20.0% 10.5% 32

5 Keibert Ruiz 39 D — WARM 24 0.169 88.0 4.9% 9.1% 380 10.7% 16.7% 8.8% 21

6 Jacob Young 35 D — COOL 29 0.141 87.7 5.7% 9.1% 399 6.2% 0.0% 7.4% 18

7 Jorbit Vivas 26 D — WARM 38 0.086 82.9 3.1% 4.2% 392 2.2% 0.0% 6.3% 19

8 Nasim Nunez 17 D — COOL 39 0.034 84.9 0.9% 1.3% 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 9

vs WSH Bullpen Proxy 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 61 C+ — COOL 5 0.198 90.3 15.1% 15.9% 400 13.3% 23.1% 21.1% 35

2 Spencer Torkelson 56 C — · 8 0.193 89.5 12.2% 16.9% 391 15.3% 22.2% 20.8% 22

3 Dillon Dingler 53 C — · 10 0.207 88.6 9.9% 17.4% 398 17.3% 12.5% 13.3% 23

4 Hao-Yu Lee 49 D — WARM 12 0.166 89.6 8.9% 13.2% 396 17.0% 22.2% 15.7% 26

5 Colt Keith 42 D — WARM 22 0.148 88.7 7.6% 9.9% 382 6.6% 10.0% 10.8% 16

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 41 D — WARM 23 0.149 88.0 7.1% 7.9% 393 18.2% 0.0% 11.8% 43

7 Gleyber Torres 35 D — · 28 0.107 86.4 6.3% 10.7% 393 7.8% 0.0% 7.7% 25

8 Zach Mckinstry 27 D — COOL 37 0.095 85.7 2.0% 4.0% 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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