MLB Home Run Predictions — April 22, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-22: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 22, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
27
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
5/15
Top-15 picks that homered
45.4 vs 37.6
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Yordan Alvarez | Tanner Bibee | 83 | A Excellent |
| #2 | Mike Trout | Eric Lauer | 82 | A Excellent |
| #3 | Matt Olson | Zack Littell | 79 | B AboveAvg |
| #12 | Michael Harris II | Zack Littell | 69 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Nick Kurtz | Logan Gilbert | 68 | C+ Value |
| #17 | Drake Baldwin | Zack Littell | 68 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Hunter Goodman | Walker Buehler | 67 | C+ Value |
| #30 | Oneil Cruz | Jack Leiter | 61 | C+ Value |
| #40 | Carter Jensen | Chris Bassitt | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Kerry Carpenter | Chad Patrick | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Cal Raleigh | Aaron Civale | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #79 | Junior Caminero | Brandon Williamson | 46 | D Below |
| #99 | Colson Montgomery | Eduardo Rodriguez | 44 | D Below |
| #113 | Byron Buxton | Clay Holmes | 40 | D Below |
| #136 | Iván Herrera | Janson Junk | 36 | D Below |
| #142 | Pete Alonso | Michael Wacha | 35 | D Below |
| #144 | Miguel Vargas | Eduardo Rodriguez | 35 | D Below |
| #150 | Nolan Schanuel | Eric Lauer | 34 | D Below |
| #155 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Chris Bassitt | 33 | D Below |
| #160 | Ildemaro Vargas | Anthony Kay | 33 | D Below |
| #173 | Kyle Isbel | Chris Bassitt | 29 | D Below |
| #182 | Nolan Arenado | Anthony Kay | 28 | D Below |
| #187 | Spencer Torkelson | Chad Patrick | 27 | D Below |
| #198 | Michael Busch | Kyle Backhus | 25 | D Below |
| #230 | Josh Jung | Braxton Ashcraft | 19 | D Below |
| #235 | Coby Mayo | Michael Wacha | 17 | D Below |
| #257 | Patrick Bailey | Shohei Ohtani | 9 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Kerry Carpenter, Cal Raleigh, Junior Caminero, Colson Montgomery, Byron Buxton, Iván Herrera, Pete Alonso, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Schanuel, Vinnie Pasquantino, Ildemaro Vargas, Kyle Isbel, Nolan Arenado, Spencer Torkelson, Michael Busch, Josh Jung, Coby Mayo, Patrick Bailey
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.