MLB Home Run Predictions — April 21, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-21: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 21, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
20
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
43.2 vs 37.9
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | James Wood | Reynaldo López | 82 | A Excellent |
| #11 | Kyle Schwarber | Shota Imanaga | 69 | C+ Value |
| #20 | Drake Baldwin | Foster Griffin | 63 | C+ Value |
| #28 | Shea Langeliers | Luis Castillo | 61 | C+ Value |
| #32 | Elly De La Cruz | Steven Matz | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Bryce Harper | Shota Imanaga | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Angel Martínez | Ryan Weiss | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Spencer Steer | Steven Matz | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #70 | Cal Raleigh | Jacob Lopez | 47 | D Below |
| #106 | Jonathan Aranda | Chase Burns | 39 | D Below |
| #125 | Byron Buxton | Nolan McLean | 36 | D Below |
| #143 | Jonathan India | Shane Baz | 33 | D Below |
| #147 | Giancarlo Stanton | Connelly Early | 32 | D Below |
| #148 | Francisco Lindor | Simeon Woods Richardson | 32 | D Below |
| #161 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | Steven Matz | 29 | D Below |
| #162 | Nathan Church | Chris Paddack | 29 | D Below |
| #174 | Nico Hoerner | Jesús Luzardo | 27 | D Below |
| #175 | Jeff McNeil | Luis Castillo | 27 | D Below |
| #218 | Coby Mayo | Kris Bubic | 17 | D Below |
| #223 | Jakob Marsee | Dustin May | 16 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Cal Raleigh, Jonathan Aranda, Byron Buxton, Jonathan India, Giancarlo Stanton, Francisco Lindor, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Nathan Church, Nico Hoerner, Jeff McNeil, Coby Mayo, Jakob Marsee
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.