TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.14×

TB @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph out 67°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:00p

+5 ↑

2:00p

+5 ↑

3:00p

+5 ↑

4:00p

+5 ↑

5:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +5 FIT

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 12 · vs Williams ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 10 · vs Jax → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 99

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C ●●○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Victor Mesa Jr. — C ●○○○○

FADE Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 93

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●○○○○

2 Chase Delauter — D ●○○○○

3 Patrick Bailey — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 24.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Williams — 0.247 · 92.7 · 12.0% 0.0% 24.4% F B O C 58

· TB Victor Mesa Jr. COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.238 · 89.4 · 10.9% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Jax Edge — 0.163 · 87.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 19.1% F B O D 40

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.160 · 91.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 17.6% F B O D 45

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Williams — 0.162 · 85.8 · 6.3% 0.0% 16.9% F B O D 35

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Jax Edge — 0.170 · 91.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 38

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Jax Edge — 0.129 · 90.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 38

· CLE Nathaniel Lowe vs Jax Edge — 0.190 · 89.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 44

· CLE Jo Adell vs Jax — 0.160 · 90.4 · 8.6% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 43

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Williams — 0.153 · 90.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 38

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 33

· TB Liam Hicks COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.150 · 84.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.139 · 86.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 35

· CLE Petey Halpin vs Jax Edge — 0.101 · 85.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 32

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Jax Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 20

· TB Taylor Walls vs Williams Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 25

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.049 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 14

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Gavin Williams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Griffin Jax — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:00p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph out 67°F open

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

1:00p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

2:00p

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

3:00p

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

4:00p

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

5:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 67°F, wind 9 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 58 C — · 2 0.247 92.7 12.0% 41.5%vs RHP 413 24.5% 0.0% 24.4% 39

2 Victor Mesa Jr. 50 C — COOL 7 0.238 89.4 10.9% 26.7%vs RHP 401 15.4% 0.0% 17.0% 31

3 Jonathan Aranda 45 D — COOL 10 0.160 91.1 10.4% 18.4%vs RHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 17.6% 21

4 Yandy Diaz 38 D — · 22 0.153 90.9 8.8% 23.7%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 39

5 Liam Hicks 36 D — COOL 25 0.150 84.6 6.4% 19.3%vs RHP 382 12.9% 0.0% 9.9% 26

6 Jonny Deluca 35 D — · 27 0.162 85.8 6.3% 25.0%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 32

7 Richie Palacios 35 D — COOL 28 0.139 86.2 6.6% 19.2%vs RHP 385 8.4% 0.0% 9.2% 25

8 Taylor Walls 25 D — WARM 34 0.075 85.6 4.8% 2.1%vs RHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 6.6% 14

9 Chandler Simpson 14 D — COOL 36 0.049 83.7 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 42

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nathaniel Lowe 44 D — WARM 12 0.190 89.6 8.3% 23.6%vs RHP 395 14.4% 0.0% 13.9% 27

2 Jo Adell 43 D — WARM 14 0.160 90.4 8.6% 11.7%vs RHP 418 13.7% 0.0% 13.1% 42

3 Travis Bazzana 40 D — WARM 20 0.163 87.6 6.6% 19.1%vs RHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 19.1% 38

4 Chase Delauter 38 D — · 21 0.170 91.4 7.3% 21.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 32

5 Patrick Bailey 38 D — WARM 23 0.129 90.5 8.0% 18.4%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 15.2% 17

6 Brayan Rocchio 33 D — COOL 29 0.139 87.0 4.9% 13.2%vs RHP 381 8.7% 0.0% 10.9% 33

7 Jose Ramirez 32 D — · 30 0.133 88.6 5.9% 9.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 43

8 Petey Halpin 32 D — · 31 0.101 85.5 6.7% 7.3%vs RHP 406 5.0% 0.0% 8.6% 18

9 Steven Kwan 20 D — COOL 35 0.067 83.9 1.8% 3.9%vs RHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 7.2% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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