TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.26×

MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 4 mph cross 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

5:00p

-2 ↑

6:00p

-2 ↑

7:00p

-2 ↑

8:00p

-2 ↑

9:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · -2 FIT

Best of game Brice Turang conv 9 · vs Glasnow ⟷ Andy Pages conv 12 · vs Drohan → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Tyler Glasnow RHP · LAD

leak 41

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brice Turang — D ●○○○○

2 Jackson Chourio — C ●○○○○

3 Jake Bauers — C ●○○○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 3

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Andy Pages — C ●●○○○

2 Teoscar Hernandez — D ●●○○○

3 Mookie Betts — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: Match 13.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Andy Pages vs Drohan Edge — 0.193 · 88.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 24.4% F B O C 51

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Drohan Edge — 0.197 · 90.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 19.0% F B O C 50

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Glasnow — 0.195 · 91.6 · 10.1% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C 51

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.218 · 92.1 · 10.8% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 54

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ HOT vs Drohan — 0.236 · 93.3 · 11.7% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Drohan Edge — 0.158 · 90.3 · 9.4% 0.0% 20.3% F B O D 44

· LAD Will Smith COOL vs Drohan Edge — 0.166 · 89.1 · 10.2% 0.0% 18.0% F B O D 48

· MIL Brice Turang vs Glasnow Edge — 0.181 · 90.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 17.6% F B O D 46

· LAD Enrique Hernandez vs Drohan Edge — 0.178 · 89.0 · 8.2% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 42

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.153 · 93.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 44

· MIL William Contreras vs Glasnow — 0.147 · 90.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 42

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Drohan — 0.151 · 88.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.142 · 88.9 · 8.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 41

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Glasnow — 0.132 · 89.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 36

· LAD Miguel Rojas vs Drohan Edge — 0.124 · 87.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· MIL David Hamilton vs Glasnow Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.089 · 85.7 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Drohan — 0.142 · 89.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Glasnow — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Shane Drohan — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani

Legend

attack side — vs Glasnow fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 5:00p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 4 mph cross 88°F open

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

5:00p · peak

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

6:00p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

7:00p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

8:00p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

78°F

9:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 88°F, wind 4 mph E (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Glasnow · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 54 C — COOL 3 0.218 92.1 10.8% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.9% 0.0% 15.6% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 51 C — · 4 0.195 91.6 10.1% 18.4%vs RHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 17.2% 33

3 Brice Turang 46 D — · 9 0.181 90.3 8.0% 24.7%vs RHP 406 11.8% 0.0% 17.6% 29

4 Garrett Mitchell 44 D — COOL 13 0.153 93.2 9.9% 26.3%vs RHP 417 7.8% 0.0% 10.8% 23

5 William Contreras 42 D — · 16 0.147 90.3 8.4% 15.9%vs RHP 407 11.8% 0.0% 10.3% 32

6 Christian Yelich 41 D — COOL 19 0.142 88.9 8.9% 21.3%vs RHP 395 9.2% 0.0% 9.5% 22

7 Joey Ortiz 36 D — WARM 26 0.132 89.2 5.8% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 9.5% 24

8 David Hamilton 30 D — WARM 32 0.091 86.8 5.3% 5.3%vs RHP 386 3.9% 0.0% 7.0% 17

9 Sal Frelick 29 D — COOL 33 0.089 85.7 4.4% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 7.0% 22

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 59 C — HOT 1 0.236 93.3 11.7% 30.0%vs LHP 407 17.2% 0.0% 13.7% 13

2 Andy Pages 51 C — WARM 5 0.193 88.9 8.2% 20.5%vs LHP 391 15.2% 0.0% 24.4% 13

3 Mookie Betts 50 C — · 6 0.197 90.2 8.1% 16.7%vs LHP 389 13.6% 0.0% 19.0% 45

4 Will Smith 48 D — COOL 8 0.166 89.1 10.2% 9.5%vs LHP 400 11.1% 0.0% 18.0% 27

5 Teoscar Hernandez 44 D — · 11 0.158 90.3 9.4% 21.9%vs LHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 20.3% 32

6 Enrique Hernandez 42 D — · 15 0.178 89.0 8.2% 22.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 19

7 Kyle Tucker 42 D — COOL 17 0.151 88.5 7.3% 11.1%vs LHP 392 9.9% 0.0% 9.8% 43

8 Freddie Freeman 42 D — · 18 0.142 89.5 8.2% 12.8%vs LHP 399 9.0% 0.0% 6.7% 37

9 Miguel Rojas 38 D — WARM 24 0.124 87.3 6.3% 12.1%vs LHP 398 8.7% 0.0% 8.8% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.