José Fermín
RHB
STL
· 63 appearances tracked
4
HRs
6.3%
HR Rate
10.8%
Avg HR/FB
85.8
Avg EV
0.121
ISO
#74
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.119
Avg EV86.3
Barrel%4.1%
HR/FB vs RHP6.9%
Avg HR Dist390
Match%6.0%
Season HR%
6.2%
14D Pace
10.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-30
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
60.8%
5
Breaking
26.2%
1
Offspeed
13.0%
0
All
100%
2.6%
6
12.6%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP · STL
SMALL SAMPLE · 9 PA · since 2026
.333
AVG
.333
SLG
0
HR
3-for-9 across 9 plate appearances since 2026. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
1 of 4 active
Busch Stadium Neutral
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Even
Weather +4
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
4.1
vs
—
HR/FB
6.9
vs
16.2 ▼ risk
K%
12.6
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
63 tracked · 4 HR · 0 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 29
vs PIT · Lake Bachar
2
90.5
2 BIP
Aug 28
vs PIT · Jared Jones
3
89.9
3 BIP
Aug 27
vs BAL · Trevor Rogers
3
85.3
3 BIP
Aug 26
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
4
95.6
4 BIP
Aug 25
vs BAL · Chris Bassitt
3
97.7
3 BIP
Aug 23
@ PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
3
100.4
HR
3 BIP
Aug 22
@ PHI · Andrew Painter
3
97.2
3 BIP
Aug 21
@ PHI · Jesús Luzardo
5
107.2
5 BIP
Aug 18
@ CIN · Andrew Abbott
3
97.7
3 BIP
Aug 17
@ CIN · CIN Bullpen Proxy
4
99.1
4 BIP
Aug 14
@ CHC · Clay Holmes
1
82.2
1 BIP
Aug 12
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
2
82.3
2 BIP
Aug 11
vs PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
3
96.2
3 BIP
Aug 10
vs PHI · Andrew Painter
2
97.8
2 BIP
Aug 9
vs COL · Michael Lorenzen
4
98.8
4 BIP
Aug 8
vs COL · Kyle Freeland
2
101.6
2 BIP
Aug 5
@ NYY · Will Warren
4
91.6
4 BIP
Aug 4
@ NYY · Ryan Weathers
3
100.5
3 BIP
Aug 3
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
104.1
3 BIP
Aug 2
@ TOR · Max Scherzer
4
103.6
4 BIP
Jul 31
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
4
97.1
4 BIP
Jul 29
vs CHC · Matthew Boyd
2
99.0
2 BIP
Jul 28
vs CHC · Colin Rea
4
98.0
4 BIP
Jul 27
vs CHC · David Peterson
4
102.2
HR
4 BIP
Jul 26
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
3
91.1
3 BIP
Jul 23
vs AZ · Brandon Pfaadt
3
103.5
3 BIP
Jul 22
@ LAA · Reid Detmers
2
96.8
2 BIP
Jul 21
@ LAA · Walbert Ureña
1
88.5
1 BIP
Jul 20
@ LAA · José Soriano
0
—
—
Jul 19
@ AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
3
95.0
3 BIP
Jul 18
@ AZ · Brandon Pfaadt
2
96.5
2 BIP
Jul 17
@ AZ · Merrill Kelly
4
101.7
4 BIP
Jul 12
vs ATL · ATL Bullpen Proxy
4
94.5
4 BIP
Jul 10
vs ATL · Chris Sale
1
67.6
1 BIP
Jul 9
vs MIL · Logan Henderson
3
83.3
3 BIP
Jul 8
vs MIL · Kyle Harrison
3
100.6
HR
3 BIP
Jul 7
vs MIL · Robert Gasser
4
89.1
4 BIP
Jul 6
vs MIL · Shane Drohan
4
102.4
4 BIP
Jul 5
@ CHC · Javier Assad
2
95.6
2 BIP
Jul 4
@ CHC · Shota Imanaga
3
92.0
3 BIP
Jul 3
@ CHC · David Peterson
4
100.1
4 BIP
Jun 30
@ ATL · Martín Pérez
3
79.3
3 BIP
Jun 26
vs MIA · Max Meyer
3
99.4
3 BIP
Jun 25
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
0
—
—
Jun 24
vs AZ · AZ Bullpen Proxy
3
99.8
HR
3 BIP
Jun 23
vs AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
3
92.0
3 BIP
Jun 18
@ KC · Noah Cameron
5
98.4
5 BIP
Jun 14
@ MIN · Taj Bradley
3
95.3
3 BIP
Jun 13
@ MIN · Connor Prielipp
4
88.8
4 BIP
Jun 10
@ NYM · Austin Warren
3
96.0
3 BIP
Jun 7
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
3
85.4
3 BIP
Jun 6
vs CIN · Nick Lodolo
4
94.9
4 BIP
Jun 3
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
2
95.6
2 BIP
May 31
vs CHC · Jordan Wicks
2
69.8
2 BIP
May 29
vs CHC · Shota Imanaga
4
109.3
4 BIP
May 26
@ MIL · Kyle Harrison
4
96.3
4 BIP
May 21
vs PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
4
102.4
4 BIP
May 16
vs KC · Noah Cameron
3
92.1
3 BIP
May 14
@ ATH · Jacob Lopez
2
99.1
2 BIP
Apr 24
vs SEA · George Kirby
3
95.5
3 BIP
Apr 22
@ MIA · Janson Junk
3
105.1
3 BIP
Apr 12
vs BOS · Brayan Bello
3
93.0
3 BIP
Apr 10
vs BOS · Connelly Early
2
97.6
2 BIP
Ballpark
Busch Stadium · open-air
Park Factor
0.828
Wind
9 mph from SSW
Temp
85°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:15p
9 ↗
85°
+3
2:15p
9 ↗
87°
+3
3:15p
10 ↗
89°
+3
4:15p
10 ↗
90°
+3
5:15p
9 ↗
89°
+2
+3
Neutral alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to pull (from SSW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
0.42×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
12 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
5 gm
since his last HR, Aug 23
Season
4 HR
63 games · 1 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 3 gaps · median 12 gm · MAD ± 3 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 27 → 27
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Pitcher FIP
season hr rate
recent hr density 14d
HR/FB Matchup
Exit Velocity
Park Factor
Common questions about José Fermín
Will José Fermín hit a home run today?
José Fermín is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #199 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Braxton Ashcraft at Busch Stadium. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does José Fermín hit home runs?
Across 63 scored games this season, José Fermín has 4 home runs — one every 15.8 games, or about 6% of his scored games.
Has José Fermín homered off Braxton Ashcraft before?
Not yet — José Fermín has faced Braxton Ashcraft 9 times without a home run.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.