Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-09-21T17:00:16-04:00
Pitch Arsenal cache is missing
Pitch-type matchup edges are unavailable until the missing Arsenal cache file is refreshed.
Batting
Pitching
30
Arsenal Edges
6
Edges That Hit HR
20%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-09-21
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Alejandro Kirk | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +11.0 | +0.5 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #22 | |
| · | Nathan Lukes | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +6.4 | +0.5 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #38 | |
| · | Samuel Basallo | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +6.9 | -0.4 | 29% | 3 | 2 | #12 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Zebby Matthews | Fastball | +4.4 | -0.1 | 36% | 8 | 7 | #9 | |
| · | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +2.4 | -1.1 | 47% | 6 | 5 | #8 | |
| · | Josh Smith | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +4.3 | +0.5 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #30 | |
| · | George Springer | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +4.2 | +0.5 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #23 | |
| 💥 | Pete Alonso | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +1.7 | -1.1 | 47% | 13 | 5 | #2 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Shane Baz | Fastball | +2.9 | -0.1 | 34% | 12 | 7 | #4 | |
| · | Austin Martin | Blade Tidwell | Sweeper | +2.9 | -0.7 | 33% | 1 | 0 | #42 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +1.3 | +0.5 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #4 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Zebby Matthews | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.1 | 36% | 4 | 7 | #34 | |
| 💥 | Brooks Lee | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.5 | 33% | 11 | 3 | #21 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.5 | 33% | 6 | 3 | #39 | |
| · | Rece Hinds | Trey Yesavage | Slider | +2.9 | +0.1 | 25% | 0 | 3 | #44 | |
| · | Austin Martin | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.5 | 33% | 2 | 3 | #42 | |
| · | Kody Clemens | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.5 | 33% | 13 | 3 | #6 | |
| · | Josh Bell | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.5 | 33% | 7 | 3 | #14 | |
| · | Alejandro Kirk | Shane Baz | Fastball | +0.4 | -0.1 | 34% | 3 | 7 | #22 | |
| 💥 | Drew Gilbert | Zebby Matthews | Fastball | +0.2 | -0.1 | 36% | 3 | 7 | #24 | |
| · | Kody Clemens | Blade Tidwell | Sweeper | +1.0 | -0.7 | 33% | 2 | 0 | #6 | |
| 💥 | Gunnar Henderson | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +1.7 | -0.4 | 29% | 1 | 2 | #16 | |
| · | George Springer | Shane Baz | Cutter | +5.0 | -1.1 | 15% | 3 | 4 | #23 | |
| · | Dylan Beavers | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +1.5 | -0.4 | 29% | 0 | 2 | #27 | |
| 💥 | Pete Alonso | Trey Yesavage | Slider | +1.7 | +0.1 | 25% | 5 | 3 | #2 | |
| · | Coby Mayo | Trey Yesavage | Slider | +1.7 | +0.1 | 25% | 7 | 3 | #3 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | Blade Tidwell | Sweeper | +0.7 | -0.7 | 33% | 0 | 0 | #39 | |
| 💥 | Gunnar Henderson | Trey Yesavage | Slider | +1.5 | +0.1 | 25% | 6 | 3 | #16 | |
| · | Victor Caratini | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | -0.6 | +0.5 | 33% | 3 | 3 | #37 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Zebby Matthews | Changeup | +1.5 | +2.7 | 13% | 1 | 3 | #9 |
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.