Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-07-14T17:00:09-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-14
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +3.1 | -0.3 | 43% | 5 | 5 | #2 | |
| · | Riley Greene | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +2.8 | -0.3 | 43% | 1 | 5 | #8 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +2.0 | -0.3 | 43% | 7 | 5 | #3 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +3.3 | -0.5 | 36% | 8 | 4 | #7 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +1.5 | -0.3 | 43% | 4 | 5 | #5 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +2.8 | -0.5 | 36% | 10 | 4 | #4 | |
| · | Mike Trout | Cristopher Sanchez | Changeup | +2.9 | -1.6 | 39% | 2 | 4 | #6 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.5 | 36% | 10 | 4 | #9 | |
| · | Ernie Clement | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +0.4 | -0.3 | 43% | 2 | 5 | #17 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Cristopher Sanchez | Changeup | +1.9 | -1.6 | 39% | 3 | 4 | #1 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.5 | 36% | 8 | 4 | #10 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.5 | 36% | 6 | 4 | #11 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +1.9 | -0.5 | 36% | 3 | 4 | #12 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Cristopher Sanchez | Changeup | +1.4 | -1.6 | 39% | 3 | 4 | #2 | |
| · | Cody Bellinger | Cristopher Sanchez | Slider | +5.4 | -0.9 | 19% | 5 | 2 | #15 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.5 | 36% | 4 | 4 | #14 | |
| · | Ozzie Albies | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.5 | 36% | 7 | 4 | #16 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Dylan Cease | Sweeper | +6.4 | +0.2 | 5% | 2 | 0 | #7 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Dylan Cease | Knuckle Curve | +4.6 | +0.0 | 10% | 0 | 0 | #4 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Dylan Cease | Slider | +1.8 | -2.9 | 29% | 4 | 1 | #12 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Dylan Cease | Changeup | +3.5 | -0.5 | 12% | 5 | 0 | #4 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Cristopher Sanchez | Slider | +2.0 | -0.9 | 19% | 3 | 2 | #1 | |
| · | Riley Greene | Cristopher Sanchez | Slider | +1.8 | -0.9 | 19% | 0 | 2 | #8 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Dylan Cease | Knuckle Curve | +3.1 | +0.0 | 10% | 0 | 0 | #7 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Dylan Cease | Slider | +1.0 | -2.9 | 29% | 2 | 1 | #7 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Dylan Cease | Slider | +0.9 | -2.9 | 29% | 4 | 1 | #9 | |
| · | Ernie Clement | Cristopher Sanchez | Slider | +1.1 | -0.9 | 19% | 2 | 2 | #17 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.0 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.