MLB Home Run Predictions — April 24, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-04-24: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for April 24, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Ben Rice | Lance McCullers Jr. | 92 | A+ Premium |
| #17 | Bryce Harper | Grant Holmes | 78 | B AboveAvg |
| #18 | Gunnar Henderson | Brayan Bello | 77 | B AboveAvg |
| #22 | Daniel Schneemann | Max Scherzer | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #24 | Dansby Swanson | Emmet Sheehan | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #25 | Riley Greene | Andrew Abbott | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #26 | Angel Martínez | Max Scherzer | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #28 | Adley Rutschman | Brayan Bello | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #31 | Nathaniel Lowe | Framber Valdez | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #33 | Samuel Basallo | Brayan Bello | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #39 | Coby Mayo | Brayan Bello | 69 | C+ Value |
| #40 | Spencer Torkelson | Andrew Abbott | 68 | C+ Value |
| #45 | Wilyer Abreu | Brandon Young | 66 | C+ Value |
| #48 | Jesús Sánchez | Gavin Williams | 66 | C+ Value |
| #53 | Will Smith | Jameson Taillon | 66 | C+ Value |
| #61 | Ryan McMahon | Lance McCullers Jr. | 63 | C+ Value |
| #64 | Junior Caminero | Taj Bradley | 62 | C+ Value |
| #72 | Trea Turner | Grant Holmes | 60 | C+ Value |
| #77 | Nick Kurtz | Nathan Eovaldi | 60 | C+ Value |
| #84 | Dylan Beavers | Brayan Bello | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #85 | Royce Lewis | Drew Rasmussen | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #87 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Andrew Painter | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #94 | Yainer Diaz | Will Warren | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #95 | Alex Bregman | Emmet Sheehan | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #97 | Matt McLain | Framber Valdez | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #99 | Carlos Cortes | Nathan Eovaldi | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #105 | Jonathan Aranda | Taj Bradley | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #109 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Lance McCullers Jr. | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #120 | José Caballero | Lance McCullers Jr. | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #121 | Javier Báez | Andrew Abbott | 49 | D Below |
| #135 | Brady House | Bryan Hudson | 47 | D Below |
| #147 | Brooks Lee | Drew Rasmussen | 45 | D Below |
| #151 | Tyler Soderstrom | Nathan Eovaldi | 45 | D Below |
| #180 | Josh Naylor | Andre Pallante | 36 | D Below |
| #194 | Zack Gelof | Nathan Eovaldi | 34 | D Below |
| #195 | Connor Norby | Adrian Houser | 34 | D Below |
| #213 | Liam Hicks | Adrian Houser | 29 | D Below |
| #249 | Jung Hoo Lee | Sandy Alcantara | 9 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Will Smith, Ryan McMahon, Junior Caminero, Trea Turner, Nick Kurtz, Dylan Beavers, Royce Lewis, Ronald Acuña Jr., Yainer Diaz, Alex Bregman, Matt McLain, Carlos Cortes, Jonathan Aranda, Jazz Chisholm Jr., José Caballero, Javier Báez, Brady House, Brooks Lee, Tyler Soderstrom, Josh Naylor, Zack Gelof, Connor Norby, Liam Hicks, Jung Hoo Lee