TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.24×

TB @ CLE

Progressive Field · 5:08p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 11 mph out 60°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

5:08p

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8:08p

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best window is early — 5:08p at +8

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 9 · vs Messick ⟷ Angel Martinez conv 11 · vs Rasmussen → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 73

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C ●○○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●○○○○

FADE Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 68

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

2 Travis Bazzana — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 17.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Messick Edge — 0.247 · 92.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.211 · 87.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 22.9% F B O D 39

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.163 · 87.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 17.0% F B O D 36

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Messick — 0.160 · 91.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 39

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.170 · 91.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 35

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.129 · 90.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 34

· TB Nick Fortes vs Messick Edge — 0.117 · 85.4 · 3.5% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 28

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Messick Edge — 0.162 · 85.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 31

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 30

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Messick Edge — 0.153 · 90.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 33

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Messick — 0.139 · 86.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 31

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Messick — 0.138 · 88.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 32

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· TB Taylor Walls vs Messick Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 22

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 17

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Messick — 0.049 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 13

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Parker Messick — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Drew Rasmussen — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 5:08p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 11 mph out 60°F open

↑

11 mph · out

60°F

5:08p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

57°F

6:08p

↑

11 mph · out

53°F

7:08p

↑

11 mph · out

50°F

8:08p

↑

10 mph · out

49°F

9:08p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 60°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 51 C — · 1 0.247 92.7 8.3% 29.6%vs LHP 413 24.5% 0.0% 17.8% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 39 D — COOL 3 0.160 91.1 7.2% 10.0%vs LHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 14.5% 21

3 Yandy Diaz 33 D — · 7 0.153 90.9 6.1% 18.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 39

4 Cedric Mullins 32 D — WARM 8 0.138 88.1 4.7% 3.7%vs LHP 386 11.5% 0.0% 7.4% 18

5 Jonny Deluca 31 D — · 9 0.162 85.8 4.3% 8.7%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 32

6 Richie Palacios 31 D — COOL 10 0.139 86.2 4.5% 11.4% 385 8.4% 0.0% 7.6% 25

7 Nick Fortes 28 D — WARM 13 0.117 85.4 3.5% 8.7%vs LHP 386 6.1% 0.0% 12.0% 17

8 Taylor Walls 22 D — WARM 14 0.075 85.6 3.3% 3.3%vs LHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 6.4% 14

9 Chandler Simpson 13 D — COOL 16 0.049 83.7 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 42

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 39 D — · 2 0.211 87.5 6.6% 22.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 22.9% 31

2 Travis Bazzana 36 D — WARM 4 0.163 87.6 5.6% 19.1%vs RHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 17.0% 38

3 Chase Delauter 35 D — · 5 0.170 91.4 6.2% 21.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 32

4 Patrick Bailey 34 D — WARM 6 0.129 90.5 6.8% 18.4%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 13.6% 17

5 Brayan Rocchio 30 D — COOL 11 0.139 87.0 4.1% 13.2%vs RHP 381 8.7% 0.0% 9.7% 33

6 Jose Ramirez 28 D — · 12 0.133 88.6 5.0% 9.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 43

7 Steven Kwan 17 D — COOL 15 0.067 83.9 1.6% 3.9%vs RHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 6.4% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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