2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
SF
@ 7:15p
ATL
Truist Park · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open
Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph out 69°F open
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
7:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
8:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
9:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
10:15p
Suppress for HR environment
-8
10 mph · in
78°F
11:15p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.95

69°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

Adrian Houser
Adrian Houser RHP
1.52 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.64 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Matt Olson Matt Olson 76 🟡 B +325 · 3 0.300 93.5 11.8% 32.6% vs RHP 409 24.6% 25.0% 32.5% 34
2 Drake Baldwin Drake Baldwin 66 🔵 C+ +430 · 27 0.238 92.8 13.4% 26.1% vs RHP 402 25.0% 0.0% 20.4% 0
3 Austin Riley Austin Riley 48 ⚪ D +525 · 105 0.171 90.8 10.0% 14.3% vs RHP 409 8.8% 0.0% 10.6% 26
4 Dominic Smith Dominic Smith 45 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 125 0.151 88.8 8.4% 15.0% vs RHP 390 9.3% 11.1% 9.8% 32
5 Ozzie Albies Ozzie Albies 44 ⚪ D +575 🌤️ WARM 126 0.158 87.0 6.6% 12.8% vs RHP 390 13.0% 8.3% 9.9% 35
6 Mike Yastrzemski Mike Yastrzemski 39 ⚪ D +500 🌧️ COOL 156 0.143 90.6 6.1% 14.3% vs RHP 374 7.1% 0.0% 9.2% 20
7 Mauricio Dubon Mauricio Dubon 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 159 0.138 86.3 7.6% 15.2% vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 33
8 Ha-Seong Kim Ha-Seong Kim 18 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 223 0.000 84.5 4.8% 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 11
Grant Holmes
Grant Holmes RHP
1.64 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.86 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Bryce Eldridge Bryce Eldridge 67 🔵 C+ +650 · 23 0.237 92.0 11.2% 19.1% vs RHP 385 21.4% 25.0% 27.0% 35
2 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 63 🔵 C+ +540 ❄ COLD 36 0.230 89.2 11.1% 23.5% vs RHP 393 18.2% 16.7% 23.1% 45
3 Willy Adames Willy Adames 56 🟠 C +540 · 65 0.195 89.0 9.5% 18.4% vs RHP 385 13.6% 18.2% 23.1% 30
4 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 54 🟠 C +900 · 74 0.178 91.9 9.8% 17.1% vs RHP 401 12.5% 16.7% 14.8% 32
5 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 49 ⚪ D +800 🔥 HOT 93 0.156 88.3 8.4% 17.6% vs RHP 398 7.5% 25.0% 18.3% 34
6 Drew Gilbert Drew Gilbert 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 180 0.132 85.4 5.2% 16.7% vs RHP 393 3.6% 0.0% 8.7% 18
7 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 181 0.126 87.6 4.8% 9.4% vs RHP 363 5.0% 0.0% 7.8% 44
8 Daniel Susac Daniel Susac 29 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 205 0.079 85.8 6.6% 0.0% vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 24
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