2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
CLE
@ 7:40p
MIL
American Family Field · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof retractable
Park 1.02× Wind 17 mph in 68°F retractable
+5
5 mph · out
70°F
7:40p
Boost for HR environment
+5
5 mph · out
70°F
8:40p
Boost for HR environment
+5
5 mph · out
70°F
9:40p
Boost for HR environment
+5
5 mph · out
70°F
10:40p
Boost for HR environment
+5
5 mph · out
70°F
11:40p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.82

69°F, wind 17 mph W (in) — modifier: -2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Slade Cecconi
Slade Cecconi RHP
1.18 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.15 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jake Bauers Jake Bauers 74 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 6 0.282 92.6 10.2% 38.9% vs RHP 399 21.3% 40.0% 30.9% 21
2 Jackson Chourio Jackson Chourio 71 🟡 B +950 · 16 0.242 92.4 10.9% 19.4% vs RHP 399 20.0% 66.7% 31.9% 45
3 Brice Turang Brice Turang 54 🟠 C +900 🌧️ COOL 75 0.198 90.7 8.0% 27.0% vs RHP 405 10.6% 18.2% 22.4% 33
4 Garrett Mitchell Garrett Mitchell 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 96 0.161 92.3 10.4% 25.0% vs RHP 418 6.0% 8.3% 10.6% 28
5 Andrew Vaughn Andrew Vaughn 44 ⚪ D · · 127 0.194 89.3 5.1% 8.3% vs RHP 412 7.7% 0.0% 13.0% 28
6 William Contreras William Contreras 44 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 130 0.142 89.7 7.3% 16.3% vs RHP 420 9.4% 16.7% 10.7% 41
7 Christian Yelich Christian Yelich 38 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 166 0.134 88.3 6.5% 12.5% vs RHP 402 5.7% 0.0% 7.5% 32
8 David Hamilton David Hamilton 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 171 0.103 86.3 5.3% 7.7% vs RHP 383 6.0% 18.2% 11.5% 23
Robert Gasser
Robert Gasser LHP
2.22 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +1.22 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Gabriel Arias Gabriel Arias 58 🟠 C · · 54 0.180 94.6 12.9% 28.6% 383 5.9% 0.0% 17.5% 0
2 Kyle Manzardo Kyle Manzardo 58 🟠 C +950 🌧️ COOL 57 0.165 89.3 10.8% 16.7% vs LHP 390 9.8% 22.2% 21.0% 22
3 Rhys Hoskins Rhys Hoskins 57 🟠 C +950 🌧️ COOL 63 0.185 88.6 10.6% 18.8% vs LHP 379 11.1% 12.5% 15.5% 18
4 Travis Bazzana Travis Bazzana 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 91 0.187 88.5 5.8% 18.2% vs LHP 396 11.1% 8.3% 14.4% 32
5 David Fry David Fry 43 ⚪ D +850 🔥 HOT 134 0.138 86.9 8.3% 11.1% vs LHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 5
6 Brayan Rocchio Brayan Rocchio 41 ⚪ D · · 147 0.132 86.8 5.5% 13.3% vs LHP 382 6.2% 8.3% 9.2% 30
7 Austin Hedges Austin Hedges 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 182 0.096 86.4 5.0% 14.3% vs LHP 381 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 15
8 Steven Kwan Steven Kwan 23 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 216 0.047 83.0 2.2% 0.0% vs LHP 381 1.6% 0.0% 7.4% 33
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.