TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ TB

Playable air · 1.05×

CLE @ TB

Tropicana Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 10 · vs Griffin ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 9 · vs Rasmussen → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 78

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Victor Mesa — C ●○○○○

FADE Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 68

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●○○○○

2 Chase Delauter — D ●○○○○

3 Patrick Bailey — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 20.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Junior Caminero ✶ vs Griffin Edge — 0.247 · 92.7 · 10.4% 0.0% 20.2% F B O C+ 61

· — Victor Mesa COOL vs Griffin — 0.238 · 89.4 · 9.4% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.163 · 87.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 18.9% F B O D 40

· — Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Griffin — 0.160 · 91.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 17.4% F B O D 48

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.170 · 91.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 39

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.129 · 90.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 38

· CLE Nathaniel Lowe vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.190 · 89.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 45

· — Nick Fortes vs Griffin Edge — 0.117 · 85.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 35

· CLE Jo Adell vs Rasmussen — 0.160 · 90.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 42

· — Ryan Vilade COOL vs Griffin Edge — 0.184 · 89.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 47

· — Jonny Deluca vs Griffin Edge — 0.162 · 85.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 38

· — Yandy Diaz vs Griffin Edge — 0.153 · 90.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 41

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 34

· CLE Petey Halpin vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.101 · 85.5 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· — Ben Williamson COOL vs Griffin Edge — 0.080 · 87.3 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 31

· — Taylor Walls vs Griffin Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 29

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Drew Rasmussen — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Foster Griffin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 8:00p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nathaniel Lowe 45 D — WARM 10 0.190 89.6 7.1% 23.6%vs RHP 395 14.4% 0.0% 13.7% 27

2 Jo Adell 42 D — WARM 13 0.160 90.4 7.3% 11.7%vs RHP 418 13.7% 0.0% 13.1% 42

3 Travis Bazzana 40 D — WARM 16 0.163 87.6 5.6% 19.1%vs RHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 18.9% 38

4 Chase Delauter 39 D — · 19 0.170 91.4 6.2% 21.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 32

5 Patrick Bailey 38 D — WARM 21 0.129 90.5 6.8% 18.4%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 15.1% 17

6 Brayan Rocchio 34 D — COOL 28 0.139 87.0 4.1% 13.2%vs RHP 381 8.7% 0.0% 10.8% 33

7 Petey Halpin 33 D — · 29 0.101 85.5 5.7% 7.3%vs RHP 406 5.0% 0.0% 8.5% 18

8 Jose Ramirez 32 D — · 30 0.133 88.6 5.0% 9.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 43

9 Steven Kwan 21 D — COOL 36 0.067 83.9 1.6% 3.9%vs RHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 7.1% 41

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 61 C+ — · 1 0.247 92.7 10.4% 29.6%vs LHP 413 24.5% 0.0% 20.2% 39

2 Victor Mesa 51 C — COOL 4 0.238 89.4 9.4% 16.7%vs LHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 31

3 Jonathan Aranda 48 D — COOL 6 0.160 91.1 9.0% 10.0%vs LHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 17.4% 21

4 Ryan Vilade 47 D — COOL 7 0.184 89.2 7.6% 18.4%vs LHP 414 14.0% 0.0% 12.9% 20

5 Yandy Diaz 41 D — · 14 0.153 90.9 7.6% 18.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 39

6 Jonny Deluca 38 D — · 20 0.162 85.8 5.5% 8.7%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 32

7 Nick Fortes 35 D — WARM 26 0.117 85.4 4.3% 8.7%vs LHP 386 6.1% 0.0% 13.5% 17

8 Ben Williamson 31 D — COOL 31 0.080 87.3 4.0% 5.9%vs LHP 392 3.7% 0.0% 7.6% 11

9 Taylor Walls 29 D — WARM 32 0.075 85.6 4.2% 3.3%vs LHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 7.3% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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