TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ MIL

Neutral air · 1.04×

LAD @ MIL

American Family Field · 5:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph slight_out 82°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

4:00p

+0 ↑

5:00p

+0 ↑

6:00p

+0 ↑

7:00p

+0 ↑

8:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Andy Pages conv 10 · vs Henderson ⟷ Brice Turang conv 9 · vs Yamamoto → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 88

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Andy Pages — D ●●○○○

2 Max Muncy — C ●○○○○

3 Shohei Ohtani — C ●○○○○

FADE Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 82

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brice Turang — D ●○○○○

2 Jake Bauers — C ●○○○○

3 Jackson Chourio — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: Match 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.238 · 89.9 · 10.3% 0.0% 17.1% F B O C 53

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ HOT vs Henderson Edge — 0.236 · 93.3 · 11.5% 0.0% 16.7% F B O C 54

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.218 · 92.1 · 9.6% 0.0% 15.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· LAD Andy Pages vs Henderson — 0.193 · 88.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 20.4% F B O D 45

· MIL Brice Turang vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.181 · 90.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 17.4% F B O D 41

· LAD Will Smith COOL vs Henderson — 0.166 · 89.1 · 10.1% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 43

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Henderson — 0.197 · 90.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 44

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Henderson — 0.158 · 90.3 · 9.3% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 39

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Yamamoto — 0.195 · 91.6 · 9.0% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 46

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.151 · 88.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 37

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.153 · 93.2 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.142 · 88.9 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· MIL William Contreras vs Yamamoto — 0.147 · 90.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 38

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.138 · 87.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Henderson Edge — 0.142 · 89.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· MIL Cooper Pratt COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.087 · 87.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.089 · 85.7 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 25

· MIL David Hamilton vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Henderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Yoshinobu Yamamoto — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 4:00p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph slight_out 82°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

4:00p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

5:00p

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

6:00p

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

7:00p

↑

5 mph · out

38°F

8:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 82°F, wind 6 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 54 C — HOT 2 0.236 93.3 11.5% 24.3%vs RHP 407 17.2% 0.0% 16.7% 13

2 Max Muncy 53 C — COOL 3 0.238 89.9 10.3% 25.4%vs RHP 410 21.4% 0.0% 17.1% 34

3 Andy Pages 45 D — WARM 9 0.193 88.9 8.1% 20.8%vs RHP 391 15.2% 0.0% 20.4% 13

4 Mookie Betts 44 D — · 11 0.197 90.2 8.0% 16.7%vs RHP 389 13.6% 0.0% 15.8% 45

5 Will Smith 43 D — COOL 12 0.166 89.1 10.1% 14.0%vs RHP 400 11.1% 0.0% 16.1% 27

6 Teoscar Hernandez 39 D — · 18 0.158 90.3 9.3% 15.8%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 32

7 Kyle Tucker 37 D — COOL 23 0.151 88.5 7.2% 11.0%vs RHP 392 9.9% 0.0% 12.7% 43

8 Freddie Freeman 37 D — · 25 0.142 89.5 8.2% 13.2%vs RHP 399 9.0% 0.0% 8.8% 37

9 Tommy Edman 35 D — COOL 27 0.138 87.3 6.6% 8.3%vs RHP 396 10.0% 0.0% 8.9% 36

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 50 C — COOL 5 0.218 92.1 9.6% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.9% 0.0% 15.5% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 46 D — · 8 0.195 91.6 9.0% 18.4%vs RHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 15.2% 33

3 Brice Turang 41 D — · 15 0.181 90.3 7.1% 24.7%vs RHP 406 11.8% 0.0% 17.4% 29

4 Garrett Mitchell 40 D — COOL 17 0.153 93.2 8.8% 26.3%vs RHP 417 7.8% 0.0% 10.8% 23

5 William Contreras 38 D — · 22 0.147 90.3 7.5% 15.9%vs RHP 407 11.8% 0.0% 9.0% 32

6 Christian Yelich 37 D — COOL 24 0.142 88.9 8.0% 21.3%vs RHP 395 9.2% 0.0% 9.4% 22

7 Cooper Pratt 28 D — COOL 33 0.087 87.0 4.6% 7.1%vs RHP 399 6.4% 0.0% 7.1% 27

8 David Hamilton 27 D — WARM 34 0.091 86.8 4.7% 5.3%vs RHP 386 3.9% 0.0% 6.9% 17

9 Sal Frelick 25 D — COOL 35 0.089 85.7 3.9% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 7.0% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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