2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 6 HRs · 3 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 4 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 7 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 6 HRs · 3 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 4 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 7 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs
CIN
@ 7:40p
MIL
American Family Field · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable
Park 1.14× Wind 2 mph slight_out 70°F retractable
+0
14 mph · cross
85°F
6:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
14 mph · cross
84°F
7:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
13 mph · cross
83°F
8:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
12 mph · cross
82°F
9:40p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
11 mph · cross
81°F
10:40p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.14

70°F, wind 2 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Nick Lodolo
Nick Lodolo LHP 💥 Meltdown
1.75 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.90 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jake Bauers Jake Bauers 68 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 8 0.269 92.8 10.7% 16.7% vs LHP 401 19.3% 10.0% 18.5% 19
2 Jackson Chourio Jackson Chourio 67 🔵 C+ +370 🌧️ COOL 9 0.241 92.4 11.1% 50.0% vs LHP 397 19.0% 16.7% 27.9% 38
3 Garrett Mitchell Garrett Mitchell 59 🟠 C · · 32 0.163 92.5 10.9% 20.0% 420 8.5% 22.2% 20.4% 22
4 William Contreras William Contreras 57 🟠 C +400 🔥 HOT 40 0.156 90.5 8.3% 10.5% vs LHP 419 12.2% 30.0% 19.2% 30
5 Brice Turang Brice Turang 57 🟠 C +750 · 41 0.191 91.0 8.8% 12.5% vs LHP 406 10.3% 8.3% 12.8% 33
6 Christian Yelich Christian Yelich 50 🟠 C +850 🔥 HOT 69 0.136 88.6 7.8% 33.3% vs LHP 399 6.7% 10.0% 11.6% 27
7 David Hamilton David Hamilton 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 108 0.106 86.4 6.0% 6.0% 383 5.2% 0.0% 7.9% 14
8 Sal Frelick Sal Frelick 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 136 0.091 86.1 4.6% 12.5% vs LHP 402 3.1% 0.0% 8.8% 26
Robert Gasser
Robert Gasser LHP
1.50 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.34 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 60 🔵 C+ +390 · 25 0.194 89.6 9.7% 28.6% vs LHP 394 13.2% 30.0% 28.8% 25
2 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 60 🔵 C+ +330 🌧️ COOL 27 0.224 94.3 9.9% 35.3% vs LHP 394 14.8% 0.0% 21.0% 15
3 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 59 🟠 C +330 · 31 0.200 90.8 10.2% 35.7% vs LHP 393 10.4% 16.7% 21.1% 36
4 Jj Bleday Jj Bleday 57 🟠 C +400 ❄ COLD 38 0.270 89.4 8.5% 23.1% vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 26
5 Nathaniel Lowe Nathaniel Lowe 56 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 43 0.215 88.8 8.9% 23.7% 398 14.9% 0.0% 17.5% 15
6 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 49 ⚪ D +500 🌤️ WARM 80 0.138 90.8 8.8% 7.7% vs LHP 384 7.7% 12.5% 9.3% 21
7 Matt Mclain Matt Mclain 48 ⚪ D +575 🌤️ WARM 82 0.153 89.0 8.3% 26.7% vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 10
8 Eugenio Suarez Eugenio Suarez 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 89 0.162 86.9 7.1% 18.2% vs LHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 21
9 TJ Friedl TJ Friedl 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 152 0.085 88.2 4.2% 5.4% 364 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 4
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.31 · build 532

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.