SD
@
8:05p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 7:05p
· roof open
Park 1.05×
Wind 6 mph cross
76°F
open
-1
13 mph · cross
84°F
7:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
12 mph · cross
83°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
11 mph · cross
82°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
10 mph · cross
81°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
10 mph · cross
81°F
11:05p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.05
76°F, wind 6 mph S (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
SD Bullpen Proxy
1.10 HR/9
· FIP-xFIP +0.00
·
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ian Happ | 63 | 🔵 C+ | +245 | · | 19 | 0.242 | 90.1 | 14.0% | 21.2% | 402 | 21.7% | 7.1% | 16.9% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +265 | 🌧️ COOL | 20 | 0.224 | 91.4 | 11.2% | 17.2% | 393 | 19.0% | 35.7% | 25.1% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 51 | 🟠 C | +280 | 🌧️ COOL | 63 | 0.186 | 89.7 | 8.6% | 19.4% | 405 | 12.7% | 14.3% | 17.2% | 30 |
| 4 |
|
Michael Busch | 50 | 🟠 C | +290 | 🌧️ COOL | 70 | 0.156 | 88.5 | 11.0% | 11.5% | 400 | 11.8% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 32 |
| 5 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 49 | ⚪ D | +390 | 🌤️ WARM | 73 | 0.167 | 89.3 | 7.2% | 13.6% | 397 | 13.4% | 28.6% | 17.9% | 34 |
| 6 |
|
Carson Kelly | 39 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 142 | 0.117 | 88.6 | 6.4% | 8.0% | 421 | 5.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 20 |
| 7 |
|
Alex Bregman | 36 | ⚪ D | +390 | ❄ COLD | 161 | 0.128 | 87.9 | 4.6% | 9.6% | 395 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 32 |
| 8 |
|
Nico Hoerner | 29 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 190 | 0.101 | 85.5 | 1.0% | 4.4% | 383 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 45 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ty France | 62 | 🔵 C+ | +350 | · | 22 | 0.234 | 91.0 | 11.7% | 25.0% vs LHP | 393 | 19.2% | 27.3% | 31.1% | 25 |
| 2 |
|
Gavin Sheets | 59 | 🟠 C | · | · | 29 | 0.227 | 89.2 | 9.8% | 21.9% | 396 | 14.1% | 20.0% | 27.2% | 26 |
| 3 |
|
Manny Machado | 58 | 🟠 C | +210 | 🔥 HOT | 36 | 0.189 | 90.0 | 10.3% | 20.0% vs LHP | 399 | 18.4% | 25.0% | 23.7% | 32 |
| 4 |
|
Jackson Merrill | 48 | ⚪ D | +350 | · | 83 | 0.136 | 90.0 | 10.5% | 15.4% vs LHP | 407 | 10.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 34 |
| 5 |
|
Xander Bogaerts | 42 | ⚪ D | +350 | 🌧️ COOL | 120 | 0.107 | 88.0 | 8.2% | 7.1% vs LHP | 395 | 9.5% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 30 |
| 6 |
|
Miguel Andujar | 41 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌤️ WARM | 121 | 0.155 | 88.1 | 6.9% | 11.1% vs LHP | 394 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.2% | 11 |
| 7 |
|
Freddy Fermin ⚡ | 40 | ⚪ D | +475 | ❄ COLD | 129 | 0.107 | 86.4 | 5.8% | 40.0% vs LHP | 382 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 14.8% | 3 |