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MIN
@
8:10p
HOU
Stadium Conditions
Minute Maid Park
First pitch 7:10p
· roof retractable
Park 0.97×
Wind 6 mph slight_out
82°F
retractable
-2
12 mph · cross
88°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
11 mph · cross
86°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
10 mph · cross
84°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
9 mph · cross
83°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
8 mph · cross
82°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.07
82°F, wind 6 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Byron Buxton | 66 | 🔵 C+ | +198 | · | 13 | 0.321 | 90.6 | 10.9% | 33.9% vs RHP | 402 | 32.4% | 25.0% | 26.2% | 43 |
| 2 |
|
Kody Clemens | 54 | 🟠 C | +390 | · | 51 | 0.234 | 92.6 | 8.9% | 20.0% vs RHP | 387 | 17.1% | 27.3% | 20.2% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Brooks Lee | 47 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 93 | 0.202 | 87.8 | 5.4% | 23.9% vs RHP | 367 | 17.3% | 27.3% | 16.4% | 41 |
| 4 |
|
Royce Lewis | 44 | ⚪ D | +400 | · | 106 | 0.151 | 88.8 | 9.0% | 18.5% vs RHP | 397 | 16.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 36 |
| 5 |
|
Josh Bell ⚡ | 42 | ⚪ D | +425 | · | 119 | 0.148 | 89.4 | 7.9% | 20.0% vs RHP | 402 | 8.5% | 20.0% | 8.5% | 37 |
| 6 |
|
Trevor Larnach | 39 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 141 | 0.152 | 86.5 | 6.5% | 13.2% vs RHP | 406 | 6.0% | 20.0% | 7.8% | 38 |
| 7 |
|
Victor Caratini | 36 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 158 | 0.136 | 89.4 | 7.0% | 20.0% vs RHP | 401 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.6% | 25 |
| 8 |
|
Austin Martin ⚡ | 28 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 193 | 0.077 | 86.7 | 3.9% | 4.3% vs RHP | 392 | 2.1% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 17 |
| 9 |
|
Luke Keaschall | 28 | ⚪ D | +750 | · | 194 | 0.082 | 84.7 | 4.5% | 5.0% vs RHP | 369 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 31 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Yordan Alvarez | 61 | 🔵 C+ | +205 | · | 23 | 0.300 | 94.3 | 14.4% | 25.4% vs RHP | 400 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.2% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Christian Walker | 58 | 🟠 C | +305 | ❄ COLD | 37 | 0.236 | 90.0 | 10.6% | 27.8% vs RHP | 390 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 18.3% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Cam Smith | 49 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 79 | 0.146 | 89.6 | 11.6% | 16.7% vs RHP | 414 | 11.7% | 18.2% | 11.5% | 35 |
| 4 |
|
Isaac Paredes | 46 | ⚪ D | +400 | · | 100 | 0.162 | 87.0 | 8.3% | 18.5% vs RHP | 367 | 11.2% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 43 |
| 5 |
|
Jeremy Peña | 43 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 110 | 0.151 | 87.1 | 6.8% | 16.1% vs RHP | 388 | 8.1% | 16.7% | 17.3% | 35 |
| 6 |
|
Brice Matthews | 43 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 115 | 0.129 | 87.5 | 9.9% | 11.1% vs RHP | 410 | 9.8% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 17 |
| 7 |
|
Jose Altuve | 40 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌧️ COOL | 127 | 0.147 | 85.3 | 8.6% | 25.0% vs RHP | 376 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 37 |
| 8 |
|
Jake Meyers | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 139 | 0.112 | 86.1 | 8.8% | 10.5% vs RHP | 400 | 8.8% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 17 |
| 9 |
|
Christian Vazquez | 32 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 182 | 0.110 | 86.0 | 4.1% | 11.1% vs RHP | 373 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 14 |