2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 6 HRs · 3 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 4 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 7 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 6 HRs · 3 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 4 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 7 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs
WSH
@ 7:10p
BOS
Fenway Park · 14 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open
Park 0.96× Wind 1 mph slight_out 64°F open
-4
5 mph · cross
77°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
4 mph · cross
73°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
4 mph · cross
72°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
5 mph · slight_out
70°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
5 mph · slight_out
69°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.96

64°F, wind 1 mph NNW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.87 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.96 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 58 🟠 C +330 · 35 0.235 90.2 11.3% 35.3% vs RHP 403 19.2% 7.7% 19.4% 31
2 Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu 51 🟠 C +390 · 66 0.173 89.8 10.4% 12.9% vs RHP 402 12.8% 16.7% 13.0% 33
3 Jarren Duran Jarren Duran 48 ⚪ D +475 🌧️ COOL 85 0.157 89.4 10.0% 35.5% vs RHP 396 14.3% 9.1% 12.4% 30
4 Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela 43 ⚪ D +575 ❄ COLD 112 0.168 86.2 7.1% 15.4% vs RHP 370 9.1% 0.0% 11.2% 44
5 Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 42 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 117 0.147 85.1 5.2% 20.8% vs RHP 381 6.8% 25.0% 17.6% 36
6 Carlos Narvaez Carlos Narvaez 37 ⚪ D +525 🌤️ WARM 153 0.085 91.5 8.6% 11.1% vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 8
7 Masataka Yoshida Masataka Yoshida 36 ⚪ D +750 🌤️ WARM 164 0.109 88.5 4.5% 3.3% vs RHP 390 6.9% 11.1% 6.9% 20
Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez LHP
0.63 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.54 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 James Wood James Wood 54 🟠 C +390 🌧️ COOL 47 0.238 95.3 11.4% 29.4% vs LHP 408 24.2% 0.0% 16.9% 31
2 Curtis Mead Curtis Mead 53 🟠 C +525 🌧️ COOL 53 0.243 88.3 8.1% 21.4% vs LHP 400 22.7% 36.4% 23.7% 34
3 Cj Abrams Cj Abrams 46 ⚪ D +625 · 95 0.227 90.0 7.6% 16.7% vs LHP 389 33.3% 0.0% 23.6% 30
4 Keibert Ruiz Keibert Ruiz 38 ⚪ D +950 ❄ COLD 148 0.185 89.2 5.5% 18.2% vs LHP 378 13.3% 0.0% 10.3% 25
5 Daylen Lile Daylen Lile 35 ⚪ D +850 ❄ COLD 171 0.154 87.3 6.2% 0.0% vs LHP 403 7.8% 0.0% 7.1% 37
6 Jacob Young Jacob Young 34 ⚪ D +950 ❄ COLD 176 0.146 89.2 6.1% 5.6% vs LHP 391 8.8% 0.0% 6.7% 26
7 Nasim Nunez Nasim Nunez 14 ⚪ D · · 198 0.041 84.8 · 0.0% vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 25
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.31 · build 532

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.