WSH
@
7:10p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 7:10p
· roof open
Park 0.96×
Wind 1 mph slight_out
64°F
open
-4
5 mph · cross
77°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
4 mph · cross
73°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
4 mph · cross
72°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
5 mph · slight_out
70°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+1
5 mph · slight_out
69°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.96
64°F, wind 1 mph NNW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 58 | 🟠 C | +330 | · | 35 | 0.235 | 90.2 | 11.3% | 35.3% vs RHP | 403 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 19.4% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 51 | 🟠 C | +390 | · | 66 | 0.173 | 89.8 | 10.4% | 12.9% vs RHP | 402 | 12.8% | 16.7% | 13.0% | 33 |
| 3 |
|
Jarren Duran ⚡ | 48 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 85 | 0.157 | 89.4 | 10.0% | 35.5% vs RHP | 396 | 14.3% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 30 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 43 | ⚪ D | +575 | ❄ COLD | 112 | 0.168 | 86.2 | 7.1% | 15.4% vs RHP | 370 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 44 |
| 5 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 42 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 117 | 0.147 | 85.1 | 5.2% | 20.8% vs RHP | 381 | 6.8% | 25.0% | 17.6% | 36 |
| 6 |
|
Carlos Narvaez | 37 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 153 | 0.085 | 91.5 | 8.6% | 11.1% vs RHP | 386 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 8 |
| 7 |
|
Masataka Yoshida ⚡ | 36 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 164 | 0.109 | 88.5 | 4.5% | 3.3% vs RHP | 390 | 6.9% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 20 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
James Wood | 54 | 🟠 C | +390 | 🌧️ COOL | 47 | 0.238 | 95.3 | 11.4% | 29.4% vs LHP | 408 | 24.2% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Curtis Mead | 53 | 🟠 C | +525 | 🌧️ COOL | 53 | 0.243 | 88.3 | 8.1% | 21.4% vs LHP | 400 | 22.7% | 36.4% | 23.7% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Cj Abrams | 46 | ⚪ D | +625 | · | 95 | 0.227 | 90.0 | 7.6% | 16.7% vs LHP | 389 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 23.6% | 30 |
| 4 |
|
Keibert Ruiz | 38 | ⚪ D | +950 | ❄ COLD | 148 | 0.185 | 89.2 | 5.5% | 18.2% vs LHP | 378 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 25 |
| 5 |
|
Daylen Lile | 35 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 171 | 0.154 | 87.3 | 6.2% | 0.0% vs LHP | 403 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 37 |
| 6 |
|
Jacob Young | 34 | ⚪ D | +950 | ❄ COLD | 176 | 0.146 | 89.2 | 6.1% | 5.6% vs LHP | 391 | 8.8% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 26 |
| 7 |
|
Nasim Nunez | 14 | ⚪ D | · | · | 198 | 0.041 | 84.8 | · | 0.0% vs LHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 25 |