ATL
@
6:05p
SF
Stadium Conditions
Oracle Park
First pitch 6:05p
· roof open
Park 0.82×
Wind 10 mph slight_out
59°F
open
+0
17 mph · slight_out
63°F
6:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
16 mph · slight_out
61°F
7:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
15 mph · slight_out
60°F
8:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
14 mph · slight_out
58°F
9:05p
Neutral for HR environment
-1
13 mph · slight_out
57°F
10:05p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.82
59°F, wind 10 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson ⚡ | 51 | 🟠 C | +425 | ❄ COLD | 72 | 0.270 | 92.8 | 8.5% | 31.8% vs RHP | 409 | 21.2% | 0.0% | 14.4% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 48 | ⚪ D | +525 | ❄ COLD | 91 | 0.218 | 92.1 | 9.8% | 29.2% vs RHP | 407 | 20.3% | 0.0% | 15.8% | 16 |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 32 | ⚪ D | +625 | · | 178 | 0.155 | 91.0 | 7.5% | 14.0% vs RHP | 409 | 7.6% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 26 |
| 4 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 31 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 183 | 0.163 | 87.2 | 4.7% | 11.3% vs RHP | 383 | 12.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 41 |
| 5 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 29 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 193 | 0.145 | 90.6 | 4.4% | 16.2% vs RHP | 374 | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 15 |
| 6 |
|
Dominic Smith ⚡ | 28 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 199 | 0.140 | 87.7 | 6.2% | 14.6% vs RHP | 390 | 7.9% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 23 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubon ⚡ | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 205 | 0.148 | 86.4 | 5.5% | 13.9% vs RHP | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 42 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willy Adames | 46 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 98 | 0.205 | 88.6 | 6.2% | 19.6% vs RHP | 389 | 15.6% | 23.1% | 20.8% | 33 |
| 2 |
|
Casey Schmitt | 46 | ⚪ D | +500 | · | 99 | 0.223 | 89.5 | 7.2% | 22.0% vs RHP | 394 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 35 |
| 3 |
|
Rafael Devers | 43 | ⚪ D | +350 | 🌤️ WARM | 111 | 0.195 | 91.9 | 6.5% | 20.0% vs RHP | 403 | 13.4% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 31 |
| 4 |
|
Matt Chapman | 31 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 182 | 0.150 | 88.4 | 5.4% | 16.2% vs RHP | 398 | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 22 |
| 5 |
|
Jung Hoo Lee | 28 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 198 | 0.154 | 87.9 | 3.4% | 10.0% vs RHP | 378 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 40 |
| 6 |
|
Drew Gilbert ⚡ | 22 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 214 | 0.126 | 85.4 | 3.1% | 14.3% vs RHP | 393 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 21 |
| 7 |
|
Luis Arraez ⚡ | 18 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 219 | 0.122 | 87.2 | 1.1% | 2.9% vs RHP | 357 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 37 |