Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, THR scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-09-04T14:00:28-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-09-04
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 605 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.132. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Luis Morales
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 7 | 16.7 | 0.419 | 33.3% | 9.74 | 9.74 | 6.25 | +3.49 | 4/17 | |
| 2 |
Valente Bellozo
COL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 31.2% | 9.97 | 9.97 | 6.23 | +3.74 | · | |
| 3 |
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.1 | 33 100th | 120.7 | 0.273 | 20.8% | 6.40 | 6.40 | 4.90 | +1.50 | 35/200 | |
| 4 |
Jameson Taillon
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 26 99th | 83.3 | 0.312 | 22.6% | 6.63 | 6.63 | 4.73 | +1.90 | 21/148 | |
| 5 |
Aaron Bummer
ATL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 7 | 17.0 | 0.412 | 30.4% | 9.09 | 9.09 | 5.85 | +3.24 | · | |
| 6 |
Mason Barnett
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 12 78th | 40.0 | 0.300 | 24.0% | 7.10 | 7.10 | 5.15 | +1.95 | 10/33 |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (605 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)