Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, THR scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-26T11:01:16-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-07-26
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 536 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.133. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Max Scherzer
TOR
🎯
|
+2 | ⚠️ High | +0.8 | 9 75th | 21.7 | 0.415 | 25.0% | 8.91 | 8.91 | 6.11 | +2.80 | 10/44 | |
| 2 |
Valente Bellozo
COL
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 31.2% | 9.97 | 9.97 | 6.23 | +3.74 | · | |
| 3 |
Chris Roycroft
TB
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 18.3 | 0.328 | 42.9% | 7.74 | 7.74 | 4.67 | +3.07 | · | |
| 4 |
Steven Cruz
KC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.9 | 10 79th | 36.0 | 0.278 | 32.3% | 5.79 | 5.79 | 3.52 | +2.27 | 4/15 | |
| 5 |
Jameson Taillon
CHC
🎯
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | +0.7 | 22 99th | 71.3 | 0.309 | 22.7% | 6.47 | 6.47 | 4.59 | +1.88 | 18/123 | |
| 6 |
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.6 | 27 100th | 100.3 | 0.269 | 20.1% | 6.13 | 6.13 | 4.72 | +1.41 | 30/158 |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (536 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)