Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-10-17T17:00:11-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-10-17
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Yandy Diaz | Shawn Armstrong | Sweeper | +6.1 | -1.5 | 29% | 5 | 0 | #8 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | Shawn Armstrong | Sweeper | +2.9 | -1.5 | 29% | 2 | 0 | #3 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Nick Martinez | Sinker | +1.3 | -0.4 | 31% | 1 | 9 | #7 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Nick Martinez | Cutter | +3.5 | -1.2 | 22% | 3 | 6 | #4 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Shawn Armstrong | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.6 | 30% | 11 | 3 | #1 | |
| · | Richie Palacios | Shawn Armstrong | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.6 | 30% | 4 | 3 | #12 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Nick Martinez | Slider | +2.8 | +4.5 | 4% | 3 | 0 | #7 | |
| · | Jonny Deluca | Shawn Armstrong | Cutter | +2.5 | -0.9 | 24% | 2 | 1 | #11 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Nick Martinez | Sinker | +0.4 | -0.4 | 31% | 0 | 9 | #17 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Nick Martinez | Changeup | +1.4 | -0.9 | 26% | 2 | 6 | #4 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Nick Martinez | Slider | +2.2 | +4.5 | 4% | 3 | 0 | #4 | |
| · | Jonny Deluca | Shawn Armstrong | Sinker | +1.8 | +1.1 | 16% | 2 | 0 | #11 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Shawn Armstrong | Sweeper | +0.7 | -1.5 | 29% | 4 | 0 | #1 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Nick Martinez | Changeup | +1.0 | -0.9 | 26% | 2 | 6 | #6 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Shawn Armstrong | Cutter | +1.1 | -0.9 | 24% | 3 | 1 | #1 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Shawn Armstrong | Sinker | +1.3 | +1.1 | 16% | 9 | 0 | #1 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | Shawn Armstrong | Cutter | +1.1 | -0.9 | 24% | 1 | 1 | #3 | |
| · | Jonny Deluca | Shawn Armstrong | Sweeper | +0.4 | -1.5 | 29% | 3 | 0 | #11 | |
| · | Jo Adell | Nick Martinez | Changeup | +0.6 | -0.9 | 26% | 5 | 6 | #5 | |
| · | Liam Hicks | Shawn Armstrong | Cutter | +1.0 | -0.9 | 24% | 1 | 1 | #10 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Nick Martinez | Changeup | +0.3 | -0.9 | 26% | 2 | 6 | #15 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | Shawn Armstrong | Sinker | +0.5 | +1.1 | 16% | 2 | 0 | #3 | |
| · | Richie Palacios | Shawn Armstrong | Cutter | +0.6 | -0.9 | 24% | 2 | 1 | #12 | |
| · | Taylor Walls | Shawn Armstrong | Cutter | +0.5 | -0.9 | 24% | 0 | 1 | #16 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Nick Martinez | Cutter | +0.8 | -1.2 | 22% | 0 | 6 | #17 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Shawn Armstrong | Sinker | +0.1 | +1.1 | 16% | 2 | 0 | #8 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Nick Martinez | Cutter | +0.7 | -1.2 | 22% | 2 | 6 | #15 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Nick Martinez | Slider | +0.2 | +4.5 | 4% | 3 | 0 | #6 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+50.2 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+39.9 RV allowed
Seth Lugo
+30.2 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.