Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-07-16T17:00:17-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-16
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Brett Baty | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +12.5 | -1.0 | 34% | 1 | 6 | #9 | |
| · | Francisco Lindor | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +10.1 | -1.0 | 34% | 0 | 6 | #7 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Christian Scott | Fastball | +3.8 | +0.4 | 50% | 10 | 5 | #3 | |
| · | Jared Young | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +7.9 | -1.0 | 34% | 0 | 6 | #6 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Christian Scott | Fastball | +2.8 | +0.4 | 50% | 10 | 5 | #1 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.4 | 50% | 4 | 5 | #5 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.4 | 50% | 4 | 5 | #13 | |
| · | Alec Bohm | Christian Scott | Splitter | +8.2 | +3.7 | 4% | 0 | 0 | #11 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Aaron Nola | Fastball | +3.3 | +3.4 | 24% | 8 | 6 | #2 | |
| · | Justin Crawford | Christian Scott | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.4 | 50% | 1 | 5 | #15 | |
| · | Alec Bohm | Christian Scott | Fastball | -1.0 | +0.4 | 50% | 4 | 5 | #11 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +3.2 | -1.0 | 34% | 0 | 6 | #2 | |
| · | Bryson Stott | Christian Scott | Fastball | -1.6 | +0.4 | 50% | 1 | 5 | #12 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Aaron Nola | Fastball | +1.3 | +3.4 | 24% | 5 | 6 | #8 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Christian Scott | Sweeper | +3.3 | +0.3 | 23% | 4 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Aaron Nola | Fastball | +0.4 | +3.4 | 24% | 3 | 6 | #4 | |
| · | Bo Bichette | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +1.6 | -1.0 | 34% | 0 | 6 | #10 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Christian Scott | Splitter | +4.4 | +3.7 | 4% | 1 | 0 | #1 | |
| · | Justin Crawford | Christian Scott | Sweeper | +2.2 | +0.3 | 23% | 1 | 2 | #15 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Aaron Nola | Cutter | +3.2 | +3.2 | 8% | 2 | 1 | #2 | |
| · | Brett Baty | Aaron Nola | Fastball | -0.5 | +3.4 | 24% | 2 | 6 | #9 | |
| · | Bo Bichette | Aaron Nola | Fastball | -0.7 | +3.4 | 24% | 3 | 6 | #10 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Aaron Nola | Sinker | +0.8 | +2.5 | 20% | 4 | 7 | #2 | |
| · | Jared Young | Aaron Nola | Fastball | -1.0 | +3.4 | 24% | 1 | 6 | #6 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Christian Scott | Sinker | +4.4 | +2.2 | 2% | 7 | 0 | #1 | |
| · | Brett Baty | Aaron Nola | Sinker | +0.3 | +2.5 | 20% | 1 | 7 | #9 | |
| · | Francisco Lindor | Aaron Nola | Fastball | -1.6 | +3.4 | 24% | 3 | 6 | #7 | |
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Aaron Nola | Sinker | -0.3 | +2.5 | 20% | 2 | 7 | #4 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Christian Scott | Curveball | +4.7 | +0.3 | 4% | 3 | 0 | #5 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Aaron Nola | Cutter | +1.6 | +3.2 | 8% | 2 | 1 | #8 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.0 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.