MLB Home Run Predictions — May 16, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-16: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 16, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
28
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
53.0 vs 42.9
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Munetaka Murakami | Jameson Taillon | 92 | A+ Premium |
| #11 | Yordan Alvarez | Jacob deGrom | 82 | A Excellent |
| #15 | Colson Montgomery | Jameson Taillon | 79 | B AboveAvg |
| #20 | Miguel Vargas | Jameson Taillon | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #21 | Drake Baldwin | Payton Tolle | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #24 | Casey Schmitt | Luis Severino | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #27 | Bryce Harper | Bubba Chandler | 69 | C+ Value |
| #30 | Brent Rooker | Trevor McDonald | 69 | C+ Value |
| #32 | Zach Cole | Jacob deGrom | 68 | C+ Value |
| #39 | Christian Walker | Jacob deGrom | 63 | C+ Value |
| #45 | Angel Martínez | Chris Paddack | 61 | C+ Value |
| #50 | Willson Contreras | Bryce Elder | 60 | C+ Value |
| #56 | Jac Caglianone | Kyle Leahy | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Jackson Chourio | Connor Prielipp | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #67 | Keibert Ruiz | Chris Bassitt | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #69 | Gavin Sheets | Logan Gilbert | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #88 | Samuel Basallo | Cade Cavalli | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #101 | Dane Myers | Joey Cantillo | 47 | D Below |
| #102 | Andrew Benintendi | Jameson Taillon | 47 | D Below |
| #144 | Nick Castellanos | Logan Gilbert | 40 | D Below |
| #170 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Davis Martin | 35 | D Below |
| #174 | J.P. Crawford | Walker Buehler | 34 | D Below |
| #184 | Jose Altuve | Jacob deGrom | 33 | D Below |
| #189 | Matt Vierling | Mason Fluharty | 32 | D Below |
| #216 | Trevor Larnach | Logan Henderson | 28 | D Below |
| #231 | Jacob Young | Chris Bassitt | 23 | D Below |
| #249 | Tyler O'Neill | Cade Cavalli | 15 | D Below |
| #261 | Yohendrick Piñango | Casey Mize | 5 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jac Caglianone, Jackson Chourio, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Sheets, Samuel Basallo, Dane Myers, Andrew Benintendi, Nick Castellanos, Pete Crow-Armstrong, J.P. Crawford, Jose Altuve, Matt Vierling, Trevor Larnach, Jacob Young, Tyler O'Neill, Yohendrick Piñango
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.