MLB Home Run Predictions — May 17, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-17: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 17, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #8 | Ben Rice | Freddy Peralta | 86 | A Excellent |
| #13 | Michael Conforto | Erick Fedde | 81 | A Excellent |
| #28 | Corbin Carroll | Michael Lorenzen | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #33 | Ryan Jeffers | Robert Gasser | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #40 | Elly De La Cruz | Gavin Williams | 63 | C+ Value |
| #47 | Austin Riley | Brayan Bello | 62 | C+ Value |
| #54 | Bryce Harper | Paul Skenes | 61 | C+ Value |
| #58 | Junior Caminero | Eury Pérez | 60 | C+ Value |
| #59 | Angel Martínez | Brady Singer | 60 | C+ Value |
| #74 | Harrison Bader | Jeffrey Springs | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Gavin Sheets | George Kirby | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #94 | Michael Busch | Erick Fedde | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #98 | Garrett Mitchell | Bailey Ober | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #109 | Chase DeLauter | Brady Singer | 49 | D Below |
| #113 | Mike Yastrzemski | Brayan Bello | 48 | D Below |
| #120 | Kyle Manzardo | Brady Singer | 47 | D Below |
| #126 | Jake Burger | Peter Lambert | 46 | D Below |
| #145 | José Ramírez | Brady Singer | 43 | D Below |
| #154 | Salvador Perez | Andre Pallante | 42 | D Below |
| #159 | Gunnar Henderson | Richard Lovelady | 40 | D Below |
| #165 | Yandy Díaz | Eury Pérez | 39 | D Below |
| #173 | Coby Mayo | Richard Lovelady | 38 | D Below |
| #179 | Bryson Stott | Paul Skenes | 37 | D Below |
| #182 | Christian Yelich | Bailey Ober | 36 | D Below |
| #199 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Michael Lorenzen | 33 | D Below |
| #205 | Brayan Rocchio | Brady Singer | 31 | D Below |
| #208 | Luis Arraez | Jeffrey Springs | 31 | D Below |
| #214 | Kyle Higashioka | Peter Lambert | 30 | D Below |
| #228 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Jack Flaherty | 27 | D Below |
| #233 | Tristan Peters | Colin Rea | 25 | D Below |
| #239 | Jacob Young | Brandon Young | 22 | D Below |
| #241 | Colton Cowser | Richard Lovelady | 21 | D Below |
| #259 | Edgar Quero | Colin Rea | 16 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero, Angel Martínez, Harrison Bader, Gavin Sheets, Michael Busch, Garrett Mitchell, Chase DeLauter, Mike Yastrzemski, Kyle Manzardo, Jake Burger, José Ramírez, Salvador Perez, Gunnar Henderson, Yandy Díaz, Coby Mayo, Bryson Stott, Christian Yelich, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Brayan Rocchio, Luis Arraez, Kyle Higashioka, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tristan Peters, Jacob Young, Colton Cowser, Edgar Quero