MLB Home Run Predictions — May 15, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-15: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 15, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
28
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
55.0 vs 44.4
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #10 | Ben Rice | Clay Holmes | 82 | A Excellent |
| #11 | Kyle Schwarber | Braxton Ashcraft | 80 | A Excellent |
| #15 | Max Muncy | Tyler Mahle | 79 | B AboveAvg |
| #16 | Jordan Walker | Michael Wacha | 78 | B AboveAvg |
| #17 | Hunter Goodman | Merrill Kelly | 78 | B AboveAvg |
| #18 | Drake Baldwin | Connelly Early | 77 | B AboveAvg |
| #21 | Colson Montgomery | Edward Cabrera | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #23 | Max Muncy | Jack Kochanowicz | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #24 | Miguel Vargas | Edward Cabrera | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #25 | Nick Kurtz | Tyler Mahle | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #38 | Michael Harris II | Connelly Early | 65 | C+ Value |
| #39 | Andy Pages | Jack Kochanowicz | 65 | C+ Value |
| #51 | Brandon Lowe | Aaron Nola | 62 | C+ Value |
| #57 | Juan Soto | Cam Schlittler | 61 | C+ Value |
| #105 | Daylen Lile | Shane Baz | 48 | D Below |
| #106 | Rhys Hoskins | Andrew Abbott | 48 | D Below |
| #118 | Jarred Kelenic | Edward Cabrera | 47 | D Below |
| #122 | Teoscar Hernández | Jack Kochanowicz | 46 | D Below |
| #162 | Matt McLain | Tanner Bibee | 39 | D Below |
| #167 | Isaac Paredes | Jack Leiter | 39 | D Below |
| #170 | Connor Norby | Ian Seymour | 38 | D Below |
| #172 | Marcell Ozuna | Aaron Nola | 37 | D Below |
| #174 | Yandy Díaz | Janson Junk | 37 | D Below |
| #192 | Jakob Marsee | Ian Seymour | 33 | D Below |
| #198 | Marcelo Mayer | Spencer Strider | 31 | D Below |
| #204 | Pedro Pagés | Michael Wacha | 30 | D Below |
| #206 | Luis Arraez | Aaron Civale | 30 | D Below |
| #247 | Cedric Mullins | Janson Junk | 16 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Brandon Lowe, Juan Soto, Daylen Lile, Rhys Hoskins, Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernández, Matt McLain, Isaac Paredes, Connor Norby, Marcell Ozuna, Yandy Díaz, Jakob Marsee, Marcelo Mayer, Pedro Pagés, Luis Arraez, Cedric Mullins
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.