MLB Home Run Predictions — May 5, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-05: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 5, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
25
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
39.1 vs 30.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Nathaniel Lowe | Jameson Taillon | 83 | A Excellent |
| #12 | Mike Trout | Erick Fedde | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #13 | Matt Olson | George Kirby | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #14 | Liam Hicks | Chris Bassitt | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #19 | Christian Walker | Shohei Ohtani | 66 | C+ Value |
| #20 | Jorge Soler | Erick Fedde | 65 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Kazuma Okamoto | Drew Rasmussen | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Bryce Harper | Luis Severino | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #44 | Byron Buxton | Cade Cavalli | 48 | D Below |
| #56 | Casey Schmitt | Walker Buehler | 45 | D Below |
| #73 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Jacob deGrom | 39 | D Below |
| #76 | Willson Contreras | Framber Valdez | 38 | D Below |
| #89 | Michael Busch | Andrew Abbott | 33 | D Below |
| #107 | Zach Neto | Erick Fedde | 31 | D Below |
| #111 | Rhys Hoskins | Stephen Kolek | 30 | D Below |
| #127 | Ryan McMahon | Jacob deGrom | 27 | D Below |
| #155 | William Contreras | Andre Pallante | 24 | D Below |
| #169 | Otto Lopez | Chris Bassitt | 21 | D Below |
| #172 | Isaac Collins | Gavin Williams | 21 | D Below |
| #182 | Bryson Stott | Luis Severino | 19 | D Below |
| #191 | Xander Bogaerts | Logan Webb | 18 | D Below |
| #213 | Matt Vierling | Jovani Morán | 14 | D Below |
| #225 | J.P. Crawford | Bryce Elder | 13 | D Below |
| #255 | Wilyer Abreu | Framber Valdez | 7 | D Below |
| #256 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Framber Valdez | 6 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Casey Schmitt, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Willson Contreras, Michael Busch, Zach Neto, Rhys Hoskins, Ryan McMahon, William Contreras, Otto Lopez, Isaac Collins, Bryson Stott, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Vierling, J.P. Crawford, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.