MLB Home Run Predictions — May 4, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-04: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 4, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
21
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
32.3 vs 29.9
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Aaron Judge | Shane Baz | 61 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Jac Caglianone | Tanner Bibee | 47 | D Below |
| #29 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tanner Bibee | 45 | D Below |
| #33 | Kyle Tucker | Steven Okert | 44 | D Below |
| #49 | Carson Benge | Tomoyuki Sugano | 41 | D Below |
| #57 | Matt Olson | Logan Gilbert | 40 | D Below |
| #59 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | Edward Cabrera | 39 | D Below |
| #61 | Munetaka Murakami | José Soriano | 39 | D Below |
| #67 | Brice Turang | Kyle Leahy | 38 | D Below |
| #85 | Alex Freeland | Steven Okert | 35 | D Below |
| #86 | Drake Baldwin | Logan Gilbert | 35 | D Below |
| #88 | Luke Raley | JR Ritchie | 35 | D Below |
| #97 | Miguel Vargas | José Soriano | 33 | D Below |
| #98 | Ozzie Albies | Logan Gilbert | 33 | D Below |
| #110 | Austin Riley | Logan Gilbert | 29 | D Below |
| #114 | Bryce Harper | Janson Junk | 28 | D Below |
| #138 | J.P. Crawford | JR Ritchie | 23 | D Below |
| #169 | Casey Schmitt | Randy Vásquez | 14 | D Below |
| #183 | Jarren Duran | Tarik Skubal | 8 | D Below |
| #190 | Ramón Laureano | Trevor McDonald | 6 | D Below |
| #191 | Jackson Merrill | Trevor McDonald | 5 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Matt Olson, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Munetaka Murakami, Brice Turang, Alex Freeland, Drake Baldwin, Luke Raley, Miguel Vargas, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Bryce Harper, J.P. Crawford, Casey Schmitt, Jarren Duran, Ramón Laureano, Jackson Merrill
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.