MLB Home Run Predictions — May 3, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-03: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 3, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
13
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
31.9 vs 28.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #7 | Mickey Moniak | Spencer Strider | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #12 | Moisés Ballesteros | Merrill Kelly | 46 | D Below |
| #23 | Tyler Soderstrom | Parker Messick | 43 | D Below |
| #46 | Adrian Del Castillo | Matthew Boyd | 38 | D Below |
| #54 | TJ Rumfield | Spencer Strider | 37 | D Below |
| #56 | Chase DeLauter | Aaron Civale | 37 | D Below |
| #95 | Kazuma Okamoto | Joe Ryan | 31 | D Below |
| #102 | Spencer Torkelson | Jack Leiter | 31 | D Below |
| #116 | Miguel Andujar | Anthony Kay | 29 | D Below |
| #158 | Manny Machado | Anthony Kay | 25 | D Below |
| #183 | Mark Vientos | Jack Kochanowicz | 21 | D Below |
| #219 | Bryson Stott | Chris Paddack | 14 | D Below |
| #223 | Jarren Duran | Cody Bolton | 13 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
TJ Rumfield, Chase DeLauter, Kazuma Okamoto, Spencer Torkelson, Miguel Andujar, Manny Machado, Mark Vientos, Bryson Stott, Jarren Duran
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.