MLB Home Run Predictions — May 6, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-05-06: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for May 6, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
24
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
34.7 vs 30.3
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Aaron Judge | Nathan Eovaldi | 65 | C+ Value |
| #23 | Corey Seager | Will Warren | 49 | D Below |
| #26 | Juan Soto | Michael Lorenzen | 49 | D Below |
| #34 | Andy Pages | Lance McCullers Jr. | 46 | D Below |
| #42 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Brady Singer | 44 | D Below |
| #45 | Brice Matthews | Tyler Glasnow | 43 | D Below |
| #60 | Spencer Steer | Colin Rea | 41 | D Below |
| #61 | Ian Happ | Brady Singer | 41 | D Below |
| #65 | Julio Rodríguez | Martín Pérez | 40 | D Below |
| #67 | Tyler Soderstrom | Zack Wheeler | 40 | D Below |
| #90 | Adolis García | Jeffrey Springs | 37 | D Below |
| #92 | Evan Carter | Will Warren | 37 | D Below |
| #99 | Pete Alonso | Eury Pérez | 36 | D Below |
| #126 | TJ Rumfield | Freddy Peralta | 33 | D Below |
| #132 | Matt McLain | Colin Rea | 32 | D Below |
| #139 | Marcus Semien | Michael Lorenzen | 31 | D Below |
| #161 | Brady House | Bailey Ober | 27 | D Below |
| #176 | Brandon Lowe | Michael Soroka | 25 | D Below |
| #178 | Gavin Sheets | Adrian Houser | 24 | D Below |
| #182 | CJ Abrams | Bailey Ober | 24 | D Below |
| #189 | Matt Wallner | Miles Mikolas | 23 | D Below |
| #214 | Andrew Vaughn | Andre Pallante | 19 | D Below |
| #237 | Xander Bogaerts | Adrian Houser | 15 | D Below |
| #256 | Rafael Devers | Matt Waldron | 11 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Spencer Steer, Ian Happ, Julio Rodríguez, Tyler Soderstrom, Adolis García, Evan Carter, Pete Alonso, TJ Rumfield, Matt McLain, Marcus Semien, Brady House, Brandon Lowe, Gavin Sheets, CJ Abrams, Matt Wallner, Andrew Vaughn, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.