TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.85×

TB @ MIL

American Family Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph cross 59°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:00p

-7 ↑

8:00p

-7 ↑

9:00p

-7 ↑

10:00p

-6 ↑

11:00p

conditions build late — the 11:00p window peaks -6

Best of game Brice Turang conv 8 · vs Rasmussen ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 10 · vs Henderson → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 68

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brice Turang — D ●○○○○

2 Jake Bauers — D ●○○○○

3 Jackson Chourio — D ●○○○○

FADE Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 64

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C ●○○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 19.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Henderson — 0.247 · 92.7 · 10.4% 0.0% 19.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.160 · 91.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 17.9% F B O D 43

· MIL Brice Turang vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.181 · 90.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 40

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.218 · 92.1 · 9.2% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 48

· TB Nick Fortes vs Henderson — 0.117 · 85.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 30

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Rasmussen — 0.195 · 91.6 · 8.6% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 44

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Henderson — 0.162 · 85.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 34

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.153 · 93.2 · 8.4% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 38

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Henderson Edge — 0.138 · 88.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 35

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Henderson — 0.153 · 90.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 35

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.139 · 86.2 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 33

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.142 · 88.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 35

· MIL William Contreras vs Rasmussen — 0.147 · 90.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Rasmussen — 0.132 · 89.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 30

· TB Taylor Walls vs Henderson Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 24

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.089 · 85.7 · 3.7% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 23

· MIL David Hamilton vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 25

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.049 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 13

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Henderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Drew Rasmussen — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Rasmussen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 7:00p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph cross 59°F retractable

-7

↑

6 mph · cross

59°F

7:00p

-7

↑

7 mph · cross

58°F

8:00p

-7

↑

7 mph · cross

56°F

9:00p

-7

↑

7 mph · cross

55°F

10:00p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

54°F

11:00p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.85× 59°F, wind 6 mph S (cross) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 55 C — · 1 0.247 92.7 10.4% 41.5%vs RHP 413 24.5% 0.0% 19.4% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 43 D — COOL 4 0.160 91.1 9.0% 18.4%vs RHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 17.9% 21

3 Yandy Diaz 35 D — · 8 0.153 90.9 7.6% 23.7%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 39

4 Cedric Mullins 35 D — WARM 9 0.138 88.1 5.9% 16.5%vs RHP 386 11.5% 0.0% 10.0% 18

5 Jonny Deluca 34 D — · 11 0.162 85.8 5.4% 25.0%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 32

6 Richie Palacios 33 D — COOL 12 0.139 86.2 5.7% 19.2%vs RHP 385 8.4% 0.0% 9.3% 25

7 Nick Fortes 30 D — WARM 13 0.117 85.4 4.3% 19.1%vs RHP 386 6.1% 0.0% 13.6% 17

8 Taylor Walls 24 D — WARM 16 0.075 85.6 4.2% 2.1%vs RHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 6.7% 14

9 Chandler Simpson 13 D — COOL 18 0.049 83.7 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 42

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 48 D — COOL 2 0.218 92.1 9.2% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.9% 0.0% 14.8% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 44 D — · 3 0.195 91.6 8.6% 18.4%vs RHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 13.4% 33

3 Brice Turang 40 D — · 5 0.181 90.3 6.8% 24.7%vs RHP 406 11.8% 0.0% 16.6% 29

4 Garrett Mitchell 38 D — COOL 6 0.153 93.2 8.4% 26.3%vs RHP 417 7.8% 0.0% 10.2% 23

5 William Contreras 36 D — · 7 0.147 90.3 7.2% 15.9%vs RHP 407 11.8% 0.0% 8.0% 32

6 Christian Yelich 35 D — COOL 10 0.142 88.9 7.6% 21.3%vs RHP 395 9.2% 0.0% 9.0% 22

7 Joey Ortiz 30 D — WARM 14 0.132 89.2 4.9% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 7.4% 24

8 David Hamilton 25 D — WARM 15 0.091 86.8 4.5% 5.3%vs RHP 386 3.9% 0.0% 6.6% 17

9 Sal Frelick 23 D — COOL 17 0.089 85.7 3.7% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 6.7% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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