TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.38×

TB @ CLE

Progressive Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 23 mph in 55°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

8:00p

+5 ↑

9:00p

+5 ↑

10:00p

+5 ↑

11:00p

+5 ↑

12:00a

conditions hold steady across the window · +5 FIT

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 10 · vs Armstrong ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 8 · vs Martinez → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Shawn Armstrong RHP

leak 86

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C ●●○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Victor Mesa Jr. — D ●○○○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 38

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●○○○○

2 Chase Delauter — D ●○○○○

3 Jo Adell — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Junior Caminero ✶ vs Armstrong — 0.247 · 92.7 · 9.8% 0.0% 20.8% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Martinez Edge — 0.163 · 87.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 39

· — Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Armstrong Edge — 0.160 · 91.1 · 8.5% 0.0% 15.5% F B O D 44

· — Victor Mesa Jr. COOL vs Armstrong Edge — 0.238 · 89.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 15.0% F B O D 49

· — Jonny Deluca vs Armstrong — 0.162 · 85.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 35

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Martinez Edge — 0.170 · 91.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 38

· CLE Jo Adell vs Martinez — 0.160 · 90.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 42

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Martinez Edge — 0.129 · 90.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 37

· CLE Nathaniel Lowe vs Martinez Edge — 0.190 · 89.6 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 44

· — Yandy Diaz vs Armstrong — 0.153 · 90.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 37

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 4.4% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 33

· — Liam Hicks COOL vs Armstrong Edge — 0.150 · 84.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 36

· — Richie Palacios COOL vs Armstrong Edge — 0.139 · 86.2 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· CLE Petey Halpin vs Martinez Edge — 0.101 · 85.5 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Martinez Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.7% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 20

· — Taylor Walls vs Armstrong Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 25

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Armstrong Edge — 0.049 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 16

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.1% ← leak OFF 25.8% BRK 8.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

8.7% 8.5% 6.2% 8.3% D 44 —

Jo Adell R

8.0% 12.3% 8.5% 8.7% D 42 —

Travis Bazzana L Edge

6.0% 4.3% 2.5% 4.9% D 39 —

Chase Delauter L Edge

7.7% 1.4% 6.4% 6.3% D 38 —

Patrick Bailey S Edge

9.1% 5.7% 5.2% 7.2% D 37 —

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 0.9% 3.6% 2.9% D 33 —

Petey Halpin L Edge

5.0% 6.9% 5.3% 5.4% D 32 —

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 31 —

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.1% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.8% ← leak BRK 29.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

15.6% 10.7% 13.0% C 57 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Victor Mesa Jr. L Edge

12.7% 8.2% 10.9% D 49 —

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.8% 13.5% 10.0% D 44 —

Yandy Diaz R

5.7% 10.8% 7.1% D 37 —

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.8% 4.5% 3.7% D 36 —

Jonny Deluca R

4.2% 4.4% 3.6% D 35 —

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.3% 1.4% 3.9% D 35 —

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 25 —

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 16 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.8% usage) carries Armstrong's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Armstrong fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 8:00p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 23 mph in 55°F open

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

8:00p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

9:00p

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

10:00p

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

11:00p

↑

11 mph · out

38°F

12:00a

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.38× 55°F, wind 23 mph N (in) — modifier: -6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nathaniel Lowe 44 D — WARM 4 0.190 89.6 7.5% 23.6%vs RHP 395 14.4% 0.0% 11.7% 27

2 Jo Adell 42 D — WARM 5 0.160 90.4 7.8% 11.7%vs RHP 418 13.7% 0.0% 12.8% 42

3 Travis Bazzana 39 D — WARM 6 0.163 87.6 6.0% 19.1%vs RHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 16.1% 38

4 Chase Delauter 38 D — · 7 0.170 91.4 6.6% 21.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 32

5 Patrick Bailey 37 D — WARM 9 0.129 90.5 7.2% 18.4%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 12.8% 17

6 Brayan Rocchio 33 D — COOL 13 0.139 87.0 4.4% 13.2%vs RHP 381 8.7% 0.0% 9.2% 33

7 Petey Halpin 32 D — · 14 0.101 85.5 6.1% 7.3%vs RHP 406 5.0% 0.0% 7.3% 18

8 Jose Ramirez 31 D — · 15 0.133 88.6 5.3% 9.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 43

9 Steven Kwan 20 D — COOL 17 0.067 83.9 1.7% 3.9%vs RHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 6.1% 41

vs Shawn Armstrong · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 57 C — · 1 0.247 92.7 9.8% 41.5%vs RHP 413 24.5% 0.0% 20.8% 39

2 Victor Mesa Jr. 49 D — COOL 2 0.238 89.4 8.9% 26.7%vs RHP 401 15.4% 0.0% 15.0% 31

3 Jonathan Aranda 44 D — COOL 3 0.160 91.1 8.5% 18.4%vs RHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 15.5% 21

4 Yandy Diaz 37 D — · 8 0.153 90.9 7.2% 23.7%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 39

5 Liam Hicks 36 D — COOL 10 0.150 84.6 5.2% 19.3%vs RHP 382 12.9% 0.0% 8.7% 26

6 Jonny Deluca 35 D — · 11 0.162 85.8 5.1% 25.0%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 32

7 Richie Palacios 35 D — COOL 12 0.139 86.2 5.3% 19.2%vs RHP 385 8.4% 0.0% 8.1% 25

8 Taylor Walls 25 D — WARM 16 0.075 85.6 3.9% 2.1%vs RHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 5.8% 14

9 Chandler Simpson 16 D — COOL 18 0.049 83.7 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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