2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
SF
@ 4:10p
MIA
loanDepot Park · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown
Park 0.94× Wind 0 mph dome unknown
Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.94

Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Trevor McDonald
Trevor McDonald RHP
1.03 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.70 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Esteury Ruiz Esteury Ruiz 64 🔵 C+ · · 29 0.304 88.0 7.5% 20.0% 375 20.0% 25.0% 19.3% 12
2 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 54 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 66 0.170 91.6 9.5% 25.8% vs RHP 394 12.5% 33.3% 25.1% 22
3 Kyle Stowers Kyle Stowers 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 87 0.188 90.5 7.7% 18.2% vs RHP 397 8.3% 18.2% 25.4% 25
4 Joe Mack Joe Mack 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 113 0.140 89.4 7.7% 14.3% vs RHP 412 14.3% 22.2% 18.0% 21
5 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 174 0.135 87.1 5.9% 5.0% vs RHP 396 6.9% 0.0% 8.8% 30
6 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 34 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 176 0.134 90.1 6.5% 9.8% vs RHP 400 5.5% 0.0% 5.4% 45
7 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 31 ⚪ D · · 191 0.104 86.6 4.9% 8.3% vs RHP 379 7.1% 9.1% 9.1% 25
Max Meyer
Max Meyer RHP
0.74 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.39 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Bryce Eldridge Bryce Eldridge 62 🔵 C+ · · 35 0.239 91.4 10.4% 21.7% vs RHP 389 23.5% 37.5% 22.2% 35
2 Eric Haase Eric Haase 60 🔵 C+ · ❄ COLD 46 0.283 85.8 11.8% 40.0% vs RHP 398 16.7% 0.0% 18.6% 12
3 Willy Adames Willy Adames 51 🟠 C · · 78 0.208 89.0 8.9% 21.1% vs RHP 389 15.5% 16.7% 19.7% 27
4 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 51 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 82 0.225 89.1 9.8% 22.2% vs RHP 393 16.9% 0.0% 14.4% 38
5 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 50 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 83 0.189 92.1 8.9% 18.6% vs RHP 402 13.1% 23.1% 16.9% 28
6 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 40 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 145 0.160 88.3 7.4% 16.7% vs RHP 398 6.9% 15.4% 16.1% 30
7 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 28 ⚪ D · · 200 0.132 87.7 4.6% 8.6% vs RHP 366 4.6% 0.0% 6.1% 43
8 Drew Gilbert Drew Gilbert 27 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 204 0.131 84.9 4.5% 15.0% vs RHP 393 3.0% 0.0% 6.6% 21
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.