⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
PHI
@
SF
Oracle Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.87×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Combined
0.696
Temp
50.7°F
Wind
5.0 mph
out
Roof
open
Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kyle Schwarber Kyle Schwarber 68 🔵 C+ · · 13 0.323 94.3 12.9% 28.6% 410 25.0% 25.0% 19.5% 21
2 Bryce Harper Bryce Harper 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 102 0.226 91.3 9.9% 18.5% 404 12.5% 12.5% 9.9% 35
3 Max Kepler Max Kepler 37 ⚪ D · · 166 0.175 90.8 9.6% 12.2% 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0
4 Bryson Stott Bryson Stott 37 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 169 0.134 87.6 6.4% 7.8% 395 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 26
5 Nick Castellanos Nick Castellanos 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 185 0.150 87.8 7.8% 10.6% 396 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 16
6 J.T. Realmuto 32 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 192 0.127 90.0 8.4% 9.3% 408 12.5% 12.5% 3.8% 19
7 Brandon Marsh Brandon Marsh 30 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 207 0.164 91.1 8.2% 11.7% 395 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 30
8 Trea Turner Trea Turner 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 218 0.153 89.3 6.8% 9.4% 393 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 37
9 Alec Bohm Alec Bohm 27 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 219 0.123 90.8 7.0% 10.0% 386 12.5% 12.5% 3.6% 34
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willy Adames Willy Adames 50 🟠 C · · 74 0.196 88.9 10.7% 15.1% 401 11.1% 11.1% 12.9% 33
2 Dominic Smith Dominic Smith 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 96 0.132 87.7 6.2% 8.3% 396 20.0% 20.0% 10.9% 20
3 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 122 0.198 92.2 9.5% 14.8% 399 11.1% 11.1% 12.9% 37
4 Wilmer Flores Wilmer Flores 42 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 129 0.138 85.9 6.6% 10.7% 378 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 32
5 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 38 ⚪ D · · 162 0.163 89.5 9.0% 12.1% 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 17
6 Heliot Ramos Heliot Ramos 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 183 0.144 91.8 8.9% 11.9% 403 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 27
7 Patrick Bailey Patrick Bailey 28 ⚪ D · · 214 0.103 88.2 7.1% 4.9% 379 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 25
8 Tyler Fitzgerald Tyler Fitzgerald 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 215 0.111 84.5 6.4% 6.3% 380 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 1
9 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 217 0.141 87.1 5.8% 4.9% 381 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 32
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.