MIL
@
—
BOS
Park Factor
0.92×
Weather Mod
-3.0%
cold air · light crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.644
Temp
32.3°F
Wind
7.3 mph
cross
Roof
open
Shane Drohan
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 55 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 50 | 0.223 | 90.8 | 7.3% | 15.2% | 400 | 30.0% | 30.0% | 17.8% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Alex Bregman | 47 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 98 | 0.189 | 90.1 | 5.3% | 11.2% | 386 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 39 |
| 3 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 36 | ⚪ D | · | · | 172 | 0.165 | 88.3 | 6.3% | 9.3% | 391 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 24 |
| 4 |
|
Trevor Story | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 174 | 0.170 | 91.4 | 6.5% | 15.2% | 388 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Roman Anthony | 35 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 175 | 0.171 | 94.5 | 8.2% | 14.8% | 406 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 27 |
| 6 |
|
Carlos Narvaez | 34 | ⚪ D | · | · | 178 | 0.179 | 91.1 | 6.3% | 13.6% | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 18 |
| 7 |
|
Jarren Duran | 31 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 196 | 0.185 | 91.8 | 6.5% | 9.0% | 401 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 21 |
| 8 |
|
Romy Gonzalez | 30 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 202 | 0.178 | 93.3 | 7.4% | 12.7% | 413 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 29 |
| 9 |
|
Abraham Toro | 24 | ⚪ D | · | · | 229 | 0.131 | 86.3 | 4.4% | 8.5% | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 0 |
Sonny Gray
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jackson Chourio | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 109 | 0.193 | 89.3 | 9.8% | 12.4% | 397 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.8% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Isaac Collins | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 126 | 0.148 | 88.8 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 374 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 18 |
| 3 |
|
Brice Turang | 39 | ⚪ D | · | · | 155 | 0.147 | 91.1 | 8.8% | 13.3% | 408 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Rhys Hoskins | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 163 | 0.179 | 90.2 | 10.1% | 13.0% | 394 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 11 |
| 5 |
|
William Contreras | 37 | ⚪ D | · | · | 165 | 0.140 | 91.1 | 7.9% | 12.4% | 387 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 31 |
| 6 |
|
Christian Yelich | 36 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 170 | 0.188 | 90.2 | 10.1% | 29.6% | 395 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.4% | 28 |
| 7 |
|
Joey Ortiz | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 191 | 0.087 | 84.9 | 5.4% | 4.7% | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 22 |
| 8 |
|
Sal Frelick | 30 | ⚪ D | · | · | 205 | 0.117 | 85.5 | 5.5% | 7.8% | 390 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 26 |
| 9 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 223 | 0.130 | 85.2 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 390 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 27 |