⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
SD
@
PIT
PNC Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.72×
Weather Mod
-3.0%
cold air · light crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.504
Temp
35.6°F
Wind
5.5 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Oneil Cruz Oneil Cruz 57 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 42 0.178 95.8 14.3% 17.7% 410 33.3% 33.3% 15.1% 29
2 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 68 0.157 91.2 10.7% 13.4% 400 20.0% 20.0% 9.6% 29
3 Andrew McCutchen Andrew McCutchen 45 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 117 0.128 89.5 9.7% 9.6% 393 11.1% 11.1% 8.2% 12
4 Henry Davis Henry Davis 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 168 0.111 88.6 11.5% 7.7% 404 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 23
5 Tommy Pham Tommy Pham 32 ⚪ D · · 188 0.125 91.6 8.7% 10.0% 418 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0
6 Spencer Horwitz Spencer Horwitz 31 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 197 0.162 87.4 9.7% 9.2% 403 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 21
7 Joey Bart Joey Bart 31 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 198 0.091 88.4 10.9% 7.1% 402 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 5
8 Jared Triolo Jared Triolo 26 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 222 0.130 89.0 8.4% 6.6% 405 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 18
9 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 21 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 235 0.102 88.8 7.2% 5.0% 396 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 29
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill 51 🟠 C · · 70 0.193 89.7 10.1% 11.9% 391 25.0% 25.0% 9.1% 32
2 Fernando Tatis Jr. Fernando Tatis Jr. 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 139 0.178 93.3 9.2% 15.8% 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 29
3 Manny Machado Manny Machado 40 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 150 0.185 92.9 10.0% 13.1% 396 12.5% 12.5% 7.2% 23
4 Xander Bogaerts Xander Bogaerts 34 ⚪ D · · 181 0.128 89.0 7.3% 7.8% 389 12.5% 12.5% 4.0% 39
5 Gavin Sheets Gavin Sheets 30 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 203 0.177 89.9 8.6% 11.9% 402 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 22
6 Elias Diaz Elias Diaz 30 ⚪ D · · 206 0.133 88.4 7.6% 10.1% 386 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0
7 Jake Cronenworth Jake Cronenworth 25 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 226 0.131 88.5 7.0% 9.1% 396 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 28
8 Jose Iglesias Jose Iglesias 16 ⚪ D · · 239 0.065 84.0 4.0% 4.9% 391 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0
9 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 240 0.100 86.1 2.9% 4.4% 370 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 46
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.