TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.11×

NYM @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 1 mph in 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:10p

+5 ↑

8:10p

+2 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

-1 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +7

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 31 · vs Scott ⟷ Juan Soto conv 39 · vs Nola → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 93

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +1000 B ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +255 C+ ●●○○○

3 Alec Bohm +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 92

1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto +220 B ●●●●●

2 A.J. Ewing +475 D ●●○○○

3 Carson Benge +475 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Nola Edge +220 0.266 · 92.6 · 12.2% 40.0% 37.8% F B O B 73

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Scott Edge +1000 0.308 · 93.4 · 12.4% 20.0% 42.3% F B O B 74

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Scott Edge +255 0.234 · 90.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 22.4% F B O C+ 60

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Scott Edge +370 0.185 · 89.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 52

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Nola +425 0.160 · 90.0 · 12.3% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Nola Edge +475 0.163 · — · 8.7% 0.0% 21.5% F B O D 47

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Nola Edge +475 0.136 · 89.4 · 8.8% 10.0% 10.1% F B O D 49

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Nola Edge +500 0.092 · 89.5 · 9.3% 10.0% 9.0% F B O D 47

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Scott +525 0.137 · 90.1 · 6.5% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 45

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Scott +500 0.137 · — · 6.3% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 39

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Scott Edge +525 0.143 · 89.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Nola +525 0.122 · 90.3 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 46

· NYM Luis Torrens COOL vs Nola — 0.097 · 87.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 41

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Scott Edge +750 0.095 · 86.8 · 2.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 34

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Scott +475 0.116 · 88.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.5% ← leak BRK 34.7% OFF 13.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Juan Soto L Edge

18.7% 11.9% 5.3% 14.6% B 73 +220

Neutral · 1

Francisco Alvarez R

15.0% 14.3% 17.6% 15.0% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carson Benge L Edge

7.3% 8.7% 7.3% 7.6% D 49 +475

A.J. Ewing L Edge

10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% D 47 +475

Brett Baty L Edge

8.7% 14.0% 2.6% 8.7% D 47 +500

Bo Bichette R

4.9% 12.5% 0.0% 6.9% D 46 +525

Luis Torrens R

4.3% 5.1% 0.0% 3.9% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.5% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 69.7% ← leak BRK 26.7% OFF 3.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.4% 16.9% 28.0% 19.6% B 74 +1000

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L Edge

8.8% 16.5% 8.9% 11.4% C+ 60 +255

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.4% 15.1% 2.8% 9.5% C 52 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R

4.8% 5.5% 6.7% 5.2% D 45 +525

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.5% 5.3% 6.2% 6.7% D 44 +525

Trea Turner R

8.4% 4.3% 0.0% 6.3% D 42 +475

J.T. Realmuto R

4.9% 4.3% 8.3% 5.0% D 39 +500

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (69.7% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Schwarber

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Juan Soto +220 · 73

Kyle Schwarber +1000 · 74

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.11× Wind 1 mph in 75°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

88°F

7:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

8:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

82°F

9:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

80°F

10:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · in

77°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 75°F, wind 1 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 73 B +220 COOL 2 0.266 92.6 12.2% 32.7%vs RHP 401 21.0% 40.0% 37.8% 28

2 Francisco Alvarez 51 C +425 COOL 5 0.160 90.0 12.3% 22.6%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 20

3 Carson Benge 49 D +475 COOL 6 0.136 89.4 8.8% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.8% 10.0% 10.1% 29

4 A.J. Ewing 47 D +475 WARM 7 0.163 — 8.7% 17.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 27

5 Brett Baty 47 D +500 HOT 8 0.092 89.5 9.3% 9.1%vs RHP 407 4.4% 10.0% 9.0% 29

6 Bo Bichette 46 D +525 COOL 9 0.122 90.3 8.3% 10.3%vs RHP 385 9.8% 0.0% 9.6% 31

7 Luis Torrens 41 D — COOL 13 0.097 87.6 6.3% 7.1%vs RHP 394 5.7% 0.0% 9.0% 15

vs Christian Scott · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 74 B +1000 COOL 1 0.308 93.4 12.4% 45.6%vs RHP 404 25.8% 20.0% 42.3% 20

2 Bryce Harper 60 C+ +255 COOL 3 0.234 90.1 9.5% 37.0%vs RHP 400 19.6% 0.0% 22.4% 25

3 Brandon Marsh 52 C +370 COOL 4 0.185 89.8 8.6% 25.0%vs RHP 392 13.6% 0.0% 15.8% 24

4 Alec Bohm 45 D +525 WARM 10 0.137 90.1 6.5% 20.0%vs RHP 394 11.2% 10.0% 8.7% 30

5 Bryson Stott 44 D +525 · 11 0.143 89.1 7.4% 9.1%vs RHP 393 8.0% 0.0% 9.9% 31

6 Trea Turner 42 D +475 COOL 12 0.116 88.6 7.0% 16.7%vs RHP 393 11.1% 0.0% 8.0% 29

7 J.T. Realmuto 39 D +500 · 14 0.137 — 6.3% 18.8%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 18

8 Justin Crawford 34 D +750 COOL 15 0.095 86.8 2.8% 6.1%vs RHP 382 3.0% 0.0% 8.6% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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