TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ SD

Petco Park is live · 1.17×

MIL @ SD

Petco Park · 9:30p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph cross 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

6:30p

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7:30p

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8:30p

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9:30p

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10:30p

conditions hold steady across the window · -6 FIT

Best of game Gavin Sheets conv 57 · vs May ⟷ Brice Turang conv 23 · vs Pivetta → edge: Gavin Sheets

ATTACK Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 31

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Gavin Sheets — D ●●●●●

2 Manny Machado — D ●●●●○

3 Xander Bogaerts — D ●●○○○

FADE Nick Pivetta RHP · SD

leak 3

0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brice Turang — D ●●●○○

2 Christian Yelich — D ●●○○○

3 Jackson Chourio — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Gavin Sheets: Match 14.8% · 14D pace 100.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 18 long shots

· — Gavin Sheets ✶ vs May Edge — 0.184 · 87.4 · 7.4% 100.0% 14.8% F B O D 42

· — Manny Machado COOL vs May — 0.190 · 90.1 · 8.6% 33.3% 18.9% F B O D 48

· MIL Brice Turang vs Pivetta Edge — 0.181 · 90.3 · 8.4% 33.3% 11.8% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.142 · 88.9 · 9.4% 25.0% 6.4% F B O D 37

· — Xander Bogaerts vs May — 0.113 · 89.6 · 6.5% 20.0% 10.1% F B O D 33

· — Ethan Salas vs May Edge — 0.200 · 90.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 19.5% F B O D 35

· — Fernando Tatis Jr. vs May — 0.181 · 92.9 · 9.9% 0.0% 16.5% F B O D 44

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Pivetta — 0.195 · 91.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 45

· — Ty France COOL vs May — 0.206 · 91.5 · 8.4% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 44

· — Jackson Merrill vs May Edge — 0.185 · 91.5 · 9.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.218 · 92.1 · 11.3% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 48

· MIL William Contreras vs Pivetta — 0.147 · 90.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Pivetta — 0.132 · 89.2 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 30

· — Jake Cronenworth HOT vs May Edge — 0.094 · 87.2 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 27

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.153 · 93.2 · 10.4% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 38

· — Dustin Harris COOL vs May Edge — 0.090 · 85.2 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 26

· MIL David Hamilton vs Pivetta Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 5.6% 0.0% 4.7% F B O D 25

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.089 · 85.7 · 4.6% 0.0% 4.7% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nick Pivetta — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dustin May — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Turang Yelich Machado Sheets Bogaerts

Legend

attack side — vs May fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Manny Machado — · 48

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:30p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph cross 92°F open

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

6:30p · peak

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

7:30p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

8:30p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

9:30p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

10:30p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 92°F, wind 5 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Pivetta · RHP 0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.05 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 48 D — COOL 10 0.218 92.1 11.3% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.9% 0.0% 10.5% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 45 D — · 12 0.195 91.6 10.7% 18.4%vs RHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 13.8% 33

3 Brice Turang 42 D — · 18 0.181 90.3 8.4% 24.7%vs RHP 406 11.8% 33.3% 11.8% 29

4 Garrett Mitchell 38 D — COOL 24 0.153 93.2 10.4% 26.3%vs RHP 417 7.8% 0.0% 7.3% 23

5 William Contreras 37 D — · 25 0.147 90.3 8.9% 15.9%vs RHP 407 11.8% 0.0% 8.2% 32

6 Christian Yelich 37 D — COOL 26 0.142 88.9 9.4% 21.3%vs RHP 395 9.2% 25.0% 6.4% 22

7 Joey Ortiz 30 D — WARM 31 0.132 89.2 6.1% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 7.6% 24

8 David Hamilton 25 D — WARM 35 0.091 86.8 5.6% 5.3%vs RHP 386 3.9% 0.0% 4.7% 17

9 Sal Frelick 23 D — COOL 36 0.089 85.7 4.6% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 4.7% 22

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 48 D — COOL 7 0.190 90.1 8.6% 26.0%vs RHP 396 18.1% 33.3% 18.9% 43

2 Jackson Merrill 45 D — WARM 13 0.185 91.5 9.8% 20.0%vs RHP 411 15.7% 0.0% 10.9% 36

3 Fernando Tatis Jr. 44 D — · 14 0.181 92.9 9.9% 18.2%vs RHP 408 12.0% 0.0% 16.5% 41

4 Ty France 44 D — COOL 16 0.206 91.5 8.4% 24.6%vs RHP 390 14.4% 0.0% 12.0% 40

5 Gavin Sheets ✶ 42 D — WARM 17 0.184 87.4 7.4% 27.9%vs RHP 396 11.0% 100.0% 14.8% 6

6 Ethan Salas 35 D — WARM 28 0.200 90.1 5.0% 18.2%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 21

7 Xander Bogaerts 33 D — WARM 30 0.113 89.6 6.5% 17.1%vs RHP 402 8.0% 20.0% 10.1% 28

8 Jake Cronenworth 27 D — HOT 33 0.094 87.2 5.5% 11.5%vs RHP 377 3.6% 0.0% 7.6% 37

9 Dustin Harris 26 D — COOL 34 0.090 85.2 3.6% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 48

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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