TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ ATL

Playable air · 1.08×

LAD @ ATL

Truist Park · 6:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 6 mph cross 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

6:00p

+15 ↑

7:00p

+15 ↑

8:00p

+15 ↑

9:00p

+15 ↑

10:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +15 FIT

Best of game Austin Riley conv 25 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Andy Pages conv 27 · vs Sale → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 82

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Austin Riley — D ●●●●○

2 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●○○

3 Drake Baldwin — C ●●●○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 17

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Andy Pages — C ●●●●○

2 Mookie Betts — D ●●●○○

3 Teoscar Hernandez — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 28.3% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Andy Pages vs Sale Edge — 0.193 · 88.9 · 7.1% 33.3% 21.5% F B O C 50

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.251 · 92.5 · 9.7% 16.7% 28.3% F B O C+ 63

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.175 · 91.5 · 9.2% 20.0% 13.5% F B O C 51

· LAD Shohei Ohtani HOT vs Sale — 0.236 · 93.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 16.9% F B O C 57

· ATL Michael Harris II vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.195 · 90.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 15.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.145 · 91.3 · 9.0% 33.3% 15.7% F B O D 48

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Sale Edge — 0.197 · 90.2 · 7.0% 16.7% 16.7% F B O D 48

· ATL Ronald Acuna Jr. COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.196 · 89.6 · 9.3% 0.0% 25.9% F B O D 48

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Sale Edge — 0.158 · 90.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 17.9% F B O D 41

· LAD Will Smith COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.166 · 89.1 · 8.9% 0.0% 15.9% F B O D 46

· ATL Lane Thomas vs Yamamoto — 0.159 · 89.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 44

· LAD Enrique Hernandez vs Sale Edge — 0.178 · 89.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 40

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Sale — 0.151 · 88.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 40

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.154 · 87.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 40

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Yamamoto — 0.123 · 86.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 33

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Sale — 0.142 · 89.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 40

· LAD Miguel Rojas vs Sale Edge — 0.124 · 87.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 36

· ATL Ha-Seong Kim COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.024 · 85.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Chris Sale — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Yoshinobu Yamamoto — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pages Betts Olson Baldwin Riley

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Andy Pages — · 50

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 6:00p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 6 mph cross 74°F open

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

6:00p · peak

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

7:00p

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

8:00p

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

9:00p

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

10:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 74°F, wind 6 mph E (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 57 C — HOT 2 0.236 93.3 10.2% 30.0%vs LHP 407 17.2% 0.0% 16.9% 13

2 Andy Pages 50 C — WARM 5 0.193 88.9 7.1% 20.5%vs LHP 391 15.2% 33.3% 21.5% 13

3 Mookie Betts 48 D — · 8 0.197 90.2 7.0% 16.7%vs LHP 389 13.6% 16.7% 16.7% 45

4 Will Smith 46 D — COOL 11 0.166 89.1 8.9% 9.5%vs LHP 400 11.1% 0.0% 15.9% 27

5 Teoscar Hernandez 41 D — · 19 0.158 90.3 8.2% 21.9%vs LHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 32

6 Enrique Hernandez 40 D — · 20 0.178 89.0 7.2% 22.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 19

7 Kyle Tucker 40 D — COOL 21 0.151 88.5 6.3% 11.1%vs LHP 392 9.9% 0.0% 12.2% 43

8 Freddie Freeman 40 D — · 23 0.142 89.5 7.2% 12.8%vs LHP 399 9.0% 0.0% 8.3% 37

9 Miguel Rojas 36 D — WARM 27 0.124 87.3 5.5% 12.1%vs LHP 398 8.7% 0.0% 7.8% 23

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 1 0.251 92.5 9.7% 26.3%vs RHP 406 22.7% 16.7% 28.3% 42

2 Michael Harris II 51 C — · 3 0.195 90.5 8.2% 24.3%vs RHP 394 17.7% 0.0% 15.2% 42

3 Drake Baldwin 51 C — · 4 0.175 91.5 9.2% 21.9%vs RHP 402 15.6% 20.0% 13.5% 40

4 Ronald Acuna Jr. 48 D — COOL 6 0.196 89.6 9.3% 25.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 35

5 Austin Riley 48 D — COOL 9 0.145 91.3 9.0% 18.6%vs RHP 411 10.1% 33.3% 15.7% 27

6 Lane Thomas 44 D — · 15 0.159 89.3 6.5% 18.8%vs RHP 409 14.8% 0.0% 13.6% 0

7 Ozzie Albies 40 D — · 22 0.154 87.1 5.0% 12.8%vs RHP 388 12.4% 0.0% 10.4% 35

8 Mauricio Dubon 33 D — WARM 29 0.123 86.5 5.1% 9.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 41

9 Ha-Seong Kim 29 D — COOL 32 0.024 85.9 3.8% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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