2026
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Progressive Field is live · 1.33×
CWS @ CLE
Progressive Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters
Park 0.95× Wind 12 mph out 64°F Roof open
Hourly window
-28 ↑
8:00p
-28 ↑
9:00p
-28 ↑
10:00p
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11:00p
-28 ↑
12:00a
conditions hold steady across the window · -28 FIT
Best of game Brenton Doyle conv 57 · vs Williams ⟷ Patrick Bailey conv 57 · vs Burke → edge: Munetaka Murakami
ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE
leak 86
1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · leakiest side of this game
1 Brenton Doyle — D ●●●●●
2 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●○○
3 Miguel Vargas — C ●●○○○
FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS
leak 70
1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge
1 Patrick Bailey — D ●●●●●
2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●●●
3 Jo Adell — D ●●●●●
One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 32.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.
sort
price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score
#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o
· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Williams Edge — 0.271 · 93.9 · 15.0% 0.0% 32.9% F B O C+ 65
· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Williams — 0.224 · 90.1 · 12.0% 0.0% 27.0% F B O C 57
· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.205 · 88.6 · 11.5% 0.0% 14.5% F B O C 52
Below the fade line · 15 long shots
· CWS Brenton Doyle vs Williams — 0.129 · 89.1 · 8.5% 100.0% 14.0% F B O D 42
· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Burke Edge — 0.129 · 90.5 · 7.9% 100.0% 13.6% F B O D 40
· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 4.8% 100.0% 9.8% F B O D 35
· CLE Jo Adell vs Burke — 0.160 · 90.4 · 8.6% 50.0% 12.0% F B O D 44
· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Burke Edge — 0.163 · 87.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 17.1% F B O D 40
· CLE Chase Delauter vs Burke Edge — 0.170 · 91.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 38
· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Williams Edge — 0.173 · 89.3 · 9.7% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 43
· CLE Nathaniel Lowe vs Burke Edge — 0.190 · 89.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 45
· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Williams — 0.139 · 87.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 36
· CWS Kyle Teel vs Williams Edge — 0.151 · 85.7 · 11.2% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 42
· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.172 · 87.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 40
· CLE Petey Halpin vs Burke Edge — 0.101 · 85.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33
· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Williams Edge — 0.118 · 87.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 34
· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Burke Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31
· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 20
Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families
cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot
No arsenal data cached for Gavin Williams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.
No arsenal data cached for Sean Burke — matrix columns need his real pitch families.
Form × Fit
14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values
LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Doyle Adell Bailey Rocchio
Legend
attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)
In the lock zone · 0
Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.
Stadium conditions
Progressive Field
First pitch 8:00p · roof open
Park 0.95× Wind 12 mph out 64°F open
-28
↑
24 mph · in
47°F
8:00p · peak
-28
↑
24 mph · in
47°F
9:00p
-28
↑
24 mph · in
47°F
10:00p
-28
↑
24 mph · in
47°F
11:00p
-28
↑
24 mph · in
47°F
12:00a
arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour
Boost · Combined 1.33× 64°F, wind 12 mph SE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
cells tint by within-column percentile per side · BBE untinted
vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · 9 batters
#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe
1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 65 C+ — WARM 1 0.271 93.9 15.0% 37.8%vs RHP 401 19.0% 0.0% 32.9% 25
2 Miguel Vargas 57 C — COOL 2 0.224 90.1 12.0% 17.5%vs RHP 393 19.7% 0.0% 27.0% 38
3 Colson Montgomery 52 C — COOL 3 0.205 88.6 11.5% 25.3%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 14.5% 20
4 Andrew Benintendi 43 D — · 6 0.173 89.3 9.7% 15.3%vs RHP 388 11.2% 0.0% 12.9% 17
5 Brenton Doyle 42 D — · 7 0.129 89.1 8.5% 5.6%vs RHP 390 9.1% 100.0% 14.0% 25
6 Kyle Teel 42 D — · 8 0.151 85.7 11.2% 23.8%vs RHP 404 15.4% 0.0% 10.5% 22
7 Tristan Peters 40 D — COOL 11 0.172 87.5 7.7% 12.4%vs RHP 377 10.2% 0.0% 10.3% 24
8 Chase Meidroth 36 D — COOL 13 0.139 87.2 7.1% 13.6%vs RHP 382 8.6% 0.0% 11.5% 35
9 Sam Antonacci 34 D — WARM 15 0.118 87.5 7.4% 10.1%vs RHP 390 6.6% 0.0% 7.6% 40
vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 9 batters
#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe
1 Nathaniel Lowe 45 D — WARM 4 0.190 89.6 8.3% 23.6%vs RHP 395 14.4% 0.0% 12.4% 27
2 Jo Adell 44 D — WARM 5 0.160 90.4 8.6% 11.7%vs RHP 418 13.7% 50.0% 12.0% 42
3 Travis Bazzana 40 D — WARM 9 0.163 87.6 6.6% 19.1%vs RHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 17.1% 38
4 Patrick Bailey 40 D — WARM 10 0.129 90.5 7.9% 18.4%vs RHP 399 7.4% 100.0% 13.6% 17
5 Chase Delauter 38 D — · 12 0.170 91.4 7.2% 21.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 32
6 Brayan Rocchio 35 D — COOL 14 0.139 87.0 4.8% 13.2%vs RHP 381 8.7% 100.0% 9.8% 33
7 Petey Halpin 33 D — · 16 0.101 85.5 6.7% 7.3%vs RHP 406 5.0% 0.0% 7.7% 18
8 Jose Ramirez 31 D — · 17 0.133 88.6 5.8% 9.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 43
9 Steven Kwan 20 D — COOL 18 0.067 83.9 1.8% 3.9%vs RHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 6.5% 41
Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.
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