2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 6 HRs · 3 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 4 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 7 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 6 HRs · 3 Joc Pederson 5 HRs · 4 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 6 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 7 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 11 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 12 Paul Goldschmidt 4 HRs
CWS
@ 6:35p
BAL
Camden Yards · 15 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open
Park 1.21× Wind 2 mph slight_out 70°F open
+5
3 mph · in
85°F
6:35p
Boost for HR environment
+6
3 mph · cross
83°F
7:35p
Boost for HR environment
+6
3 mph · cross
81°F
8:35p
Boost for HR environment
+6
4 mph · cross
79°F
9:35p
Boost for HR environment
+7
5 mph · slight_out
77°F
10:35p
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.21

70°F, wind 2 mph NNW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Shane Baz
Shane Baz RHP
0.82 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.35 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Colson Montgomery Colson Montgomery 66 🔵 C+ +255 🌧️ COOL 11 0.251 89.7 10.7% 26.0% vs RHP 396 25.8% 16.7% 33.0% 24
2 Miguel Vargas Miguel Vargas 65 🔵 C+ +330 🌤️ WARM 16 0.230 90.0 10.6% 16.1% vs RHP 389 23.1% 27.3% 28.2% 34
3 Andrew Benintendi Andrew Benintendi 58 🟠 C +400 🌤️ WARM 34 0.196 89.7 9.3% 20.0% vs RHP 391 17.0% 25.0% 24.7% 25
4 Tristan Peters Tristan Peters 46 ⚪ D +625 🌧️ COOL 98 0.165 86.7 6.2% 9.8% vs RHP 369 7.1% 10.0% 10.7% 27
5 Sam Antonacci Sam Antonacci 45 ⚪ D +750 · 101 0.123 87.8 7.6% 12.5% vs RHP 410 7.3% 18.2% 10.0% 36
6 Chase Meidroth Chase Meidroth 40 ⚪ D +850 ❄ COLD 134 0.114 87.5 6.0% 12.5% vs RHP 381 6.1% 0.0% 9.1% 27
7 Luisangel Acuna Luisangel Acuna 35 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 165 0.035 89.3 5.9% 8.3% vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 16
Sean Burke
Sean Burke RHP
1.20 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.07 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Pete Alonso Pete Alonso 65 🔵 C+ +280 🌧️ COOL 15 0.217 94.2 9.7% 30.0% vs RHP 397 20.5% 25.0% 32.5% 24
2 Samuel Basallo Samuel Basallo 57 🟠 C +350 ❄ COLD 39 0.201 91.3 9.4% 26.8% vs RHP 401 13.6% 9.1% 23.0% 30
3 Gunnar Henderson Gunnar Henderson 56 🟠 C +330 🌧️ COOL 44 0.198 89.5 7.8% 17.9% vs RHP 388 18.5% 16.7% 15.7% 39
4 Coby Mayo Coby Mayo 54 🟠 C +390 🌤️ WARM 49 0.183 91.9 8.6% 12.0% vs RHP 403 14.7% 9.1% 15.6% 17
5 Colton Cowser Colton Cowser 53 🟠 C +475 🌧️ COOL 56 0.165 86.0 9.3% 24.2% vs RHP 417 17.5% 12.5% 13.6% 22
6 Adley Rutschman Adley Rutschman 52 🟠 C +425 ❄ COLD 59 0.198 89.4 8.1% 15.6% vs RHP 400 11.6% 0.0% 14.7% 13
7 Taylor Ward Taylor Ward 42 ⚪ D +475 🌤️ WARM 116 0.104 89.4 6.2% 6.5% vs RHP 393 6.0% 16.7% 9.4% 37
8 Leody Taveras Leody Taveras 40 ⚪ D · · 135 0.124 87.3 5.5% 9.4% vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 24
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.31 · build 532

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.