SF
@
9:40p
AZ
Stadium Conditions
Chase Field
First pitch 6:40p
· roof retractable
Park 0.90×
Wind 4 mph out
81°F
retractable
-9
14 mph · cross
94°F
6:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
14 mph · cross
92°F
7:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
13 mph · cross
90°F
8:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
11 mph · cross
87°F
9:40p
Suppress for HR environment
-9
9 mph · in
85°F
10:40p
Suppress for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.98
81°F, wind 4 mph N (out) — modifier: +1 — mild park boost, weather flat.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 53 | 🟠 C | +370 | ❄ COLD | 55 | 0.251 | 91.6 | 10.4% | 24.4% vs RHP | 406 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 37 |
| 2 |
|
Ketel Marte | 52 | 🟠 C | +330 | 🌤️ WARM | 60 | 0.199 | 91.5 | 9.9% | 13.7% vs RHP | 414 | 15.4% | 30.8% | 18.2% | 43 |
| 3 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 43 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 111 | 0.190 | 90.3 | 8.8% | 17.1% vs RHP | 395 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 29 |
| 4 |
|
Nolan Arenado | 38 | ⚪ D | +525 | · | 147 | 0.157 | 85.0 | 7.4% | 15.4% vs RHP | 400 | 9.2% | 0.0% | 10.4% | 36 |
| 5 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 36 | ⚪ D | · | · | 160 | 0.159 | 86.8 | 5.9% | 11.1% vs RHP | 399 | 6.9% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 23 |
| 6 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo ⚡ | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 163 | 0.114 | 89.3 | 7.4% | 16.7% vs RHP | 396 | 7.5% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 17 |
| 7 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 32 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 187 | 0.114 | 87.0 | 5.4% | 10.3% vs RHP | 388 | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 35 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Rafael Devers | 49 | ⚪ D | +425 | 🌤️ WARM | 75 | 0.212 | 92.1 | 9.2% | 13.0% vs LHP | 400 | 14.5% | 23.1% | 16.3% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Willy Adames | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 84 | 0.205 | 88.6 | 8.6% | 13.0% vs LHP | 389 | 15.2% | 23.1% | 18.3% | 28 |
| 3 |
|
Casey Schmitt | 48 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌤️ WARM | 86 | 0.217 | 89.5 | 9.8% | 14.3% vs LHP | 394 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 34 |
| 4 |
|
Heliot Ramos | 41 | ⚪ D | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 123 | 0.158 | 92.0 | 10.3% | 20.0% vs LHP | 399 | 8.7% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 2 |
| 5 |
|
Matt Chapman ⚡ | 35 | ⚪ D | +500 | · | 166 | 0.147 | 88.3 | 7.3% | 18.2% vs LHP | 398 | 6.2% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 22 |
| 6 |
|
Jung Hoo Lee | 33 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 179 | 0.149 | 87.9 | 4.6% | 11.8% vs LHP | 378 | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 38 |
| 7 |
|
Drew Gilbert | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 192 | 0.124 | 85.7 | 4.3% | 7.1% | 393 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 22 |
| 8 |
|
Luis Arraez | 23 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 196 | 0.121 | 87.3 | 1.5% | 5.0% vs LHP | 357 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 35 |