TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ TB

Playable air · 1.05×

CLE @ TB

Tropicana Field · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Travis Bazzana conv 10 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 10 · vs Messick → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 76

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●○○○○

2 Chase Delauter — D ●○○○○

3 Austin Hedges — D ●○○○○

FADE Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 73

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C ●●○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Victor Mesa Jr. — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 19.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Messick Edge — 0.247 · 92.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 19.8% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· — Travis Bazzana vs Peralta Edge — 0.163 · 87.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 19.3% F B O D 44

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Messick — 0.160 · 91.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 43

· TB Victor Mesa Jr. COOL vs Messick — 0.238 · 89.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 15.6% F B O D 48

· — Chase Delauter vs Peralta Edge — 0.170 · 91.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 42

· — Austin Hedges vs Peralta — 0.130 · 85.8 · 5.2% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 39

· — Nathaniel Lowe vs Peralta Edge — 0.190 · 89.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 48

· — Jo Adell vs Peralta — 0.160 · 90.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 46

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Messick Edge — 0.162 · 85.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 35

· — Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 38

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Messick Edge — 0.153 · 90.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 37

· — Petey Halpin vs Peralta Edge — 0.101 · 85.5 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

· TB Liam Hicks COOL vs Messick — 0.150 · 84.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 36

· — Jose Ramirez vs Peralta Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.080 · 87.3 · 3.1% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 28

· — Steven Kwan COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 25

· TB Taylor Walls vs Messick Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 26

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Messick — 0.049 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Parker Messick — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Freddy Peralta — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 8:00p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 56 C — · 1 0.247 92.7 8.3% 29.6%vs LHP 413 24.5% 0.0% 19.8% 39

2 Victor Mesa Jr. 48 D — COOL 2 0.238 89.4 7.5% 16.7%vs LHP 401 15.4% 0.0% 15.6% 31

3 Jonathan Aranda 43 D — COOL 6 0.160 91.1 7.2% 10.0%vs LHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 16.1% 21

4 Yandy Diaz 37 D — · 10 0.153 90.9 6.1% 18.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 39

5 Liam Hicks 36 D — COOL 13 0.150 84.6 4.4% 5.6%vs LHP 382 12.9% 0.0% 8.3% 26

6 Jonny Deluca 35 D — · 14 0.162 85.8 4.3% 8.7%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 32

7 Ben Williamson 28 D — COOL 15 0.080 87.3 3.1% 5.9%vs LHP 392 3.7% 0.0% 7.5% 11

8 Taylor Walls 26 D — WARM 16 0.075 85.6 3.3% 3.3%vs LHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 7.1% 14

9 Chandler Simpson 17 D — COOL 18 0.049 83.7 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 42

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nathaniel Lowe 48 D — WARM 3 0.190 89.6 7.0% 23.6%vs RHP 395 14.4% 0.0% 14.1% 27

2 Jo Adell 46 D — WARM 4 0.160 90.4 7.3% 11.7%vs RHP 418 13.7% 0.0% 14.1% 42

3 Travis Bazzana 44 D — WARM 5 0.163 87.6 5.6% 19.1%vs RHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 19.3% 38

4 Chase Delauter 42 D — · 7 0.170 91.4 6.1% 21.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 32

5 Austin Hedges 39 D — WARM 8 0.130 85.8 5.2% 18.8%vs RHP 388 7.5% 0.0% 14.9% 11

6 Brayan Rocchio 38 D — COOL 9 0.139 87.0 4.1% 13.2%vs RHP 381 8.7% 0.0% 11.1% 33

7 Petey Halpin 37 D — · 11 0.101 85.5 5.7% 7.3%vs RHP 406 5.0% 0.0% 8.7% 18

8 Jose Ramirez 36 D — · 12 0.133 88.6 4.9% 9.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 43

9 Steven Kwan 25 D — COOL 17 0.067 83.9 1.5% 3.9%vs RHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 7.3% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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