2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
CHC
@ 10:05p
SF
Oracle Park · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 10:05p · roof open
Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph out 66°F open
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
10:05p
Boost for HR environment
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
11:05p
Boost for HR environment
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
12:05a
Boost for HR environment
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
1:05a
Boost for HR environment
+7
15 mph · slight_out
64°F
2:05a
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.92

66°F, wind 5 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Trevor McDonald
Trevor McDonald RHP
0.90 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.64 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 59 🟠 C +475 🌧️ COOL 42 0.261 90.3 8.0% 34.2% vs RHP 403 23.9% 16.7% 33.3% 28
2 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 49 ⚪ D +475 🌤️ WARM 83 0.182 91.4 6.9% 17.4% vs RHP 392 14.7% 33.3% 24.2% 40
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 45 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 109 0.173 89.2 6.4% 23.3% vs RHP 409 12.5% 27.3% 20.3% 30
4 Michael Busch Michael Busch 41 ⚪ D +575 🌧️ COOL 137 0.155 88.6 7.0% 14.3% vs RHP 400 11.6% 16.7% 15.3% 31
5 Moises Ballesteros Moises Ballesteros 35 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 171 0.166 89.8 6.3% 21.4% vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 20
6 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 34 ⚪ D +850 🌧️ COOL 174 0.141 88.2 4.8% 16.3% vs RHP 395 7.5% 16.7% 9.8% 37
7 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 32 ⚪ D +950 ❄ COLD 186 0.133 89.3 5.5% 11.1% vs RHP 398 10.6% 0.0% 7.9% 19
8 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 28 ⚪ D · · 195 0.095 88.8 5.4% 0.0% vs RHP 418 5.1% 11.1% 6.3% 23
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 22 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 219 0.099 85.9 2.3% 4.9% vs RHP 383 5.9% 0.0% 7.0% 47
Ben Brown
Ben Brown RHP
0.15 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.96 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 53 🟠 C +500 🌧️ COOL 72 0.238 89.2 9.1% 23.5% vs RHP 393 18.8% 15.4% 15.3% 51
2 Willy Adames Willy Adames 47 ⚪ D +575 · 95 0.200 89.1 7.9% 19.6% vs RHP 385 14.1% 25.0% 17.4% 31
3 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 43 ⚪ D +425 · 127 0.180 91.9 8.1% 17.1% vs RHP 401 13.0% 15.4% 9.6% 33
4 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 38 ⚪ D +700 🔥 HOT 148 0.159 88.3 6.7% 15.6% vs RHP 397 6.2% 23.1% 13.2% 41
5 Drew Gilbert Drew Gilbert 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 198 0.135 85.2 4.3% 17.6% vs RHP 393 3.8% 12.5% 5.9% 24
6 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 25 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 207 0.129 87.8 3.9% 9.7% vs RHP 363 5.2% 0.0% 5.1% 50
7 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 17 ⚪ D +1000 🌤️ WARM 224 0.112 · 1.6% 1.7% vs RHP · 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 57
🏟️
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