2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
PHI
@ 7:10p
MIL
American Family Field · 17 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable
Park 0.98× Wind 9 mph in 83°F retractable
+4
5 mph · out
70°F
7:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
5 mph · out
70°F
8:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
5 mph · out
70°F
9:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
5 mph · out
70°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
5 mph · out
70°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.08

83°F, wind 9 mph W (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola RHP 💥 Meltdown
1.58 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.66 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jake Bauers Jake Bauers 75 🟡 B +1000 🌤️ WARM 8 0.278 92.5 11.3% 37.1% vs RHP 399 21.7% 41.7% 34.3% 22
2 Jackson Chourio Jackson Chourio 68 🔵 C+ +700 🌧️ COOL 21 0.218 92.2 11.4% 17.6% vs RHP 392 14.3% 40.0% 25.0% 43
3 Brice Turang Brice Turang 54 🟠 C · · 62 0.202 90.8 8.8% 28.6% vs RHP 405 10.8% 15.4% 24.1% 39
4 Garrett Mitchell Garrett Mitchell 46 ⚪ D · · 102 0.153 92.3 11.3% 20.0% vs RHP 415 4.2% 0.0% 10.7% 25
5 William Contreras William Contreras 44 ⚪ D +1000 🌧️ COOL 118 0.143 89.6 7.9% 16.7% vs RHP 420 9.7% 16.7% 9.6% 42
6 Christian Yelich Christian Yelich 38 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 152 0.140 88.8 7.2% 14.3% vs RHP 402 5.9% 0.0% 9.1% 34
7 David Hamilton David Hamilton 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 161 0.107 86.4 5.9% 8.1% vs RHP 383 6.2% 16.7% 11.2% 28
8 Sal Frelick Sal Frelick 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 199 0.088 85.8 4.5% 7.7% vs RHP 402 3.4% 0.0% 7.7% 33
9 Joey Ortiz Joey Ortiz 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 214 0.050 87.4 5.5% 4.8% vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 24
Shane Drohan
Shane Drohan LHP
0.48 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.84 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kyle Schwarber Kyle Schwarber 72 🟡 B +650 🌧️ COOL 14 0.338 93.3 14.2% 45.0% vs LHP 403 27.4% 16.7% 25.4% 23
2 Bryce Harper Bryce Harper 60 🔵 C+ +700 🌤️ WARM 36 0.246 90.2 11.1% 15.0% vs LHP 403 20.3% 16.7% 16.1% 28
3 Derek Hill Derek Hill 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 87 0.155 90.0 9.4% 40.0% vs LHP 406 8.3% 33.3% 19.3% 8
4 Brandon Marsh Brandon Marsh 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 100 0.173 90.0 8.5% 10.0% vs LHP 391 9.8% 25.0% 12.4% 28
5 Bryson Stott Bryson Stott 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 140 0.154 89.9 8.3% 16.7% vs LHP 392 10.2% 9.1% 7.2% 32
6 Alec Bohm Alec Bohm 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 144 0.139 90.1 6.0% 20.0% vs LHP 376 11.1% 25.0% 13.8% 37
7 Edmundo Sosa Edmundo Sosa 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 156 0.132 86.6 8.6% 28.6% vs LHP 406 8.3% 0.0% 14.8% 8
8 Trea Turner Trea Turner 32 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 185 0.113 88.9 7.0% 4.5% vs LHP 394 10.9% 0.0% 6.3% 35
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