2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
BOS
@ 10:10p
SEA
T-Mobile Park · 14 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 10:10p · roof retractable
Park 0.86× Wind 9 mph in 61°F retractable
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
12:10a
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
1:10a
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
2:10a
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.77

61°F, wind 9 mph SSW (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Connelly Early
Connelly Early LHP
1.66 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.71 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 72 🟡 B · · 11 0.284 92.8 13.2% 26.7% 400 15.5% 33.3% 29.0% 34
2 Luke Raley Luke Raley 65 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 27 0.256 90.7 13.8% 29.8% 385 18.9% 9.1% 17.7% 22
3 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 51 🟠 C +390 · 80 0.183 90.2 10.3% 32.0% vs LHP 410 19.6% 8.3% 12.3% 37
4 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 45 ⚪ D +290 🌤️ WARM 116 0.149 87.4 11.9% 8.3% vs LHP 390 13.2% 0.0% 9.3% 6
5 J.P. Crawford J.P. Crawford 41 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 140 0.172 · 10.1% 16.7% vs LHP · 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 8
6 Cole Young Cole Young 38 ⚪ D +950 🌤️ WARM 155 0.131 88.2 7.8% 15.8% vs LHP 385 8.3% 15.4% 8.1% 50
7 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 37 ⚪ D +700 🌧️ COOL 161 0.117 87.8 7.5% 8.3% vs LHP 390 10.7% 15.4% 7.3% 40
Emerson Hancock
Emerson Hancock RHP
1.25 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.23 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 60 🔵 C+ +425 ❄ COLD 45 0.240 90.0 11.9% 36.7% vs RHP 402 20.3% 16.7% 26.4% 27
2 Jarren Duran Jarren Duran 49 ⚪ D +425 🌧️ COOL 90 0.174 89.9 11.1% 37.9% vs RHP 396 15.7% 16.7% 18.2% 28
3 Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu 42 ⚪ D +390 · 136 0.155 89.8 10.7% 11.9% vs RHP 395 11.4% 8.3% 8.5% 34
4 Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela 41 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 144 0.174 86.6 8.0% 15.8% vs RHP 370 10.3% 16.7% 9.9% 37
5 Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 32 ⚪ D +950 🌤️ WARM 182 0.123 85.2 5.3% 17.4% vs RHP 388 6.2% 27.3% 11.8% 29
6 Marcelo Mayer Marcelo Mayer 27 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 203 0.086 86.0 7.8% 2.9% vs RHP 388 4.0% 10.0% 6.1% 21
7 Masataka Yoshida Masataka Yoshida 23 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 207 0.100 88.7 4.1% 3.6% vs RHP 393 4.3% 0.0% 6.2% 18
🏟️
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