BOS
@
10:10p
SEA
Stadium Conditions
T-Mobile Park
First pitch 10:10p
· roof retractable
Park 0.86×
Wind 9 mph in
61°F
retractable
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
12:10a
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
1:10a
Neutral for HR environment
+4
7 mph · out
87°F
2:10a
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Suppress · Combined 0.77
61°F, wind 9 mph SSW (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Dominic Canzone | 72 | 🟡 B | · | · | 11 | 0.284 | 92.8 | 13.2% | 26.7% | 400 | 15.5% | 33.3% | 29.0% | 34 |
| 2 |
|
Luke Raley | 65 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 27 | 0.256 | 90.7 | 13.8% | 29.8% | 385 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 17.7% | 22 |
| 3 |
|
Julio Rodríguez ⚡ | 51 | 🟠 C | +390 | · | 80 | 0.183 | 90.2 | 10.3% | 32.0% vs LHP | 410 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 37 |
| 4 |
|
Cal Raleigh | 45 | ⚪ D | +290 | 🌤️ WARM | 116 | 0.149 | 87.4 | 11.9% | 8.3% vs LHP | 390 | 13.2% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 6 |
| 5 |
|
J.P. Crawford | 41 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 140 | 0.172 | · | 10.1% | 16.7% vs LHP | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.7% | 8 |
| 6 |
|
Cole Young | 38 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 155 | 0.131 | 88.2 | 7.8% | 15.8% vs LHP | 385 | 8.3% | 15.4% | 8.1% | 50 |
| 7 |
|
Josh Naylor ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 161 | 0.117 | 87.8 | 7.5% | 8.3% vs LHP | 390 | 10.7% | 15.4% | 7.3% | 40 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +425 | ❄ COLD | 45 | 0.240 | 90.0 | 11.9% | 36.7% vs RHP | 402 | 20.3% | 16.7% | 26.4% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 49 | ⚪ D | +425 | 🌧️ COOL | 90 | 0.174 | 89.9 | 11.1% | 37.9% vs RHP | 396 | 15.7% | 16.7% | 18.2% | 28 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu ⚡ | 42 | ⚪ D | +390 | · | 136 | 0.155 | 89.8 | 10.7% | 11.9% vs RHP | 395 | 11.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 34 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 41 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 144 | 0.174 | 86.6 | 8.0% | 15.8% vs RHP | 370 | 10.3% | 16.7% | 9.9% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 32 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 182 | 0.123 | 85.2 | 5.3% | 17.4% vs RHP | 388 | 6.2% | 27.3% | 11.8% | 29 |
| 6 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 27 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 203 | 0.086 | 86.0 | 7.8% | 2.9% vs RHP | 388 | 4.0% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 21 |
| 7 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 23 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 207 | 0.100 | 88.7 | 4.1% | 3.6% vs RHP | 393 | 4.3% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 18 |