MIN
@
10:10p
AZ
Stadium Conditions
Chase Field
First pitch 10:10p
· roof retractable
Park 0.96×
Wind 4 mph cross
96°F
retractable
+4
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
10:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
11:10p
Neutral for HR environment
+4
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
12:10a
Neutral for HR environment
+4
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
1:10a
Neutral for HR environment
+4
8 mph · slight_out
110°F
2:10a
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.25
96°F, wind 4 mph W (cross) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Byron Buxton | 83 | 🟢 A | +235 | 🌤️ WARM | 1 | 0.334 | 90.7 | 14.0% | 35.2% vs RHP | 402 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 35.1% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Kody Clemens | 69 | 🔵 C+ | +370 | · | 19 | 0.245 | 92.5 | 11.5% | 20.4% vs RHP | 388 | 14.7% | 27.3% | 24.4% | 39 |
| 3 |
|
Royce Lewis | 59 | 🟠 C | +475 | · | 48 | 0.151 | 88.6 | 11.4% | 21.7% vs RHP | 397 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 18.9% | 36 |
| 4 |
|
Ryan Kreidler | 57 | 🟠 C | +700 | 🌤️ WARM | 52 | 0.227 | 87.6 | 9.9% | 30.0% vs RHP | 409 | 7.1% | 0.0% | 26.6% | 14 |
| 5 |
|
Brooks Lee | 55 | 🟠 C | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 63 | 0.188 | 87.6 | 7.2% | 21.9% vs RHP | 371 | 16.4% | 27.3% | 17.7% | 42 |
| 6 |
|
Josh Bell | 53 | 🟠 C | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 69 | 0.139 | 89.5 | 10.3% | 21.9% vs RHP | 402 | 9.4% | 36.4% | 15.3% | 36 |
| 7 |
|
Trevor Larnach | 48 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌤️ WARM | 93 | 0.150 | 86.2 | 8.4% | 14.3% vs RHP | 406 | 6.7% | 25.0% | 12.4% | 29 |
| 8 |
|
Luke Keaschall | 33 | ⚪ D | +800 | 🌤️ WARM | 178 | 0.090 | 84.8 | 5.5% | 5.3% vs RHP | 369 | 3.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 27 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 69 | 🔵 C+ | +350 | · | 18 | 0.258 | 91.8 | 11.3% | 26.3% vs RHP | 406 | 18.5% | 33.3% | 30.6% | 38 |
| 2 |
|
Gabriel Moreno | 57 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 54 | 0.215 | 90.0 | 9.7% | 18.8% vs RHP | 395 | 12.9% | 25.0% | 21.9% | 35 |
| 3 |
|
Ketel Marte | 50 | 🟠 C | +370 | 🌧️ COOL | 84 | 0.182 | 91.2 | 10.2% | 15.2% vs RHP | 413 | 12.5% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 45 |
| 4 |
|
Nolan Arenado ⚡ | 41 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 141 | 0.163 | 85.3 | 7.7% | 16.2% vs RHP | 400 | 10.4% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 34 |
| 5 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 156 | 0.161 | 86.8 | 6.2% | 11.5% vs RHP | 399 | 7.5% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 19 |
| 6 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo | 37 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 159 | 0.124 | 88.9 | 7.6% | 17.4% vs RHP | 396 | 8.6% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 4 |
| 7 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 32 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 184 | 0.112 | 87.6 | 5.3% | 8.6% vs RHP | 379 | 5.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 31 |