BOS
@
10:10p
SEA
Stadium Conditions
T-Mobile Park
First pitch 10:10p
· roof retractable
Park 0.88×
Wind 3 mph slight_out
81°F
retractable
+5
7 mph · out
87°F
10:10p
Boost for HR environment
+5
7 mph · out
87°F
11:10p
Boost for HR environment
+5
7 mph · out
87°F
12:10a
Boost for HR environment
+5
7 mph · out
87°F
1:10a
Boost for HR environment
+5
7 mph · out
87°F
2:10a
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Neutral · Combined 0.97
81°F, wind 3 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 — mild park boost, weather flat.
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Dominic Canzone | 64 | 🔵 C+ | +525 | · | 30 | 0.289 | 92.8 | 10.2% | 26.7% | 400 | 15.8% | 36.4% | 26.9% | 34 |
| 2 |
|
Luke Raley | 56 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 55 | 0.256 | 90.7 | 10.5% | 29.8% | 385 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 16.4% | 22 |
| 3 |
|
Julio Rodríguez ⚡ | 41 | ⚪ D | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 132 | 0.183 | 90.2 | 7.7% | 33.3% vs LHP | 410 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 11.4% | 38 |
| 4 |
|
Cal Raleigh | 37 | ⚪ D | +370 | 🌤️ WARM | 153 | 0.153 | 87.4 | 9.1% | 8.3% vs LHP | 390 | 13.5% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 6 |
| 5 |
|
J.P. Crawford | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 168 | 0.176 | · | 7.8% | 16.7% vs LHP | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.2% | 9 |
| 6 |
|
Cole Young | 31 | ⚪ D | +950 | · | 182 | 0.129 | 88.1 | 6.0% | 15.8% vs LHP | 385 | 8.5% | 15.4% | 7.5% | 51 |
| 7 |
|
Josh Naylor ⚡ | 30 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 189 | 0.119 | 87.8 | 5.8% | 8.3% vs LHP | 390 | 10.9% | 15.4% | 6.8% | 40 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 57 | 🟠 C | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 51 | 0.244 | 90.0 | 9.0% | 37.9% vs RHP | 402 | 20.6% | 25.0% | 32.3% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 43 | ⚪ D | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 121 | 0.176 | 89.8 | 8.4% | 37.9% vs RHP | 396 | 15.9% | 16.7% | 14.8% | 30 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | +390 | · | 154 | 0.157 | 89.8 | 8.1% | 12.3% vs RHP | 395 | 11.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 37 | ⚪ D | +625 | ❄ COLD | 155 | 0.173 | 86.5 | 6.0% | 16.2% vs RHP | 370 | 10.4% | 16.7% | 11.5% | 38 |
| 5 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 26 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 198 | 0.110 | 85.1 | 4.1% | 10.0% vs RHP | 394 | 4.7% | 18.2% | 12.7% | 30 |
| 6 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 24 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 202 | 0.086 | 86.1 | 6.0% | 2.9% vs RHP | 388 | 4.1% | 11.1% | 5.9% | 18 |
| 7 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 20 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 212 | 0.100 | 88.7 | 3.1% | 3.6% vs RHP | 393 | 4.5% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 18 |