TOR
@
2:20p
CHC
Stadium Conditions
Wrigley Field
First pitch 2:20p
· roof open
Park 1.04×
Wind 5 mph out
76°F
open
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
2:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
3:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
4:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
5:20p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · in
68°F
6:20p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.04
76°F, wind 5 mph N (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 67 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 21 | 0.224 | 91.8 | 9.5% | 20.0% vs RHP | 392 | 19.2% | 41.7% | 25.0% | 40 |
| 2 |
|
Ian Happ | 64 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 31 | 0.251 | 89.8 | 10.6% | 29.5% vs RHP | 403 | 23.6% | 16.7% | 24.2% | 30 |
| 3 |
|
Seiya Suzuki | 51 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 69 | 0.179 | 89.5 | 8.6% | 25.8% vs RHP | 409 | 11.5% | 18.2% | 22.9% | 25 |
| 4 |
|
Michael Busch | 49 | ⚪ D | · | · | 87 | 0.159 | 88.6 | 9.7% | 13.2% vs RHP | 400 | 10.8% | 16.7% | 13.4% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Matt Shaw | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 115 | 0.184 | 86.7 | 6.6% | 16.7% vs RHP | 357 | 10.3% | 0.0% | 13.1% | 12 |
| 6 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 41 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 134 | 0.134 | 89.0 | 7.2% | 10.0% vs RHP | 396 | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 22 |
| 7 |
|
Alex Bregman | 38 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 148 | 0.135 | 88.0 | 6.3% | 17.0% vs RHP | 395 | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 36 |
| 8 |
|
Carson Kelly ⚡ | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 172 | 0.095 | 88.8 | 7.2% | 0.0% vs RHP | 418 | 4.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 23 |
| 9 |
|
Nico Hoerner ⚡ | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 199 | 0.093 | 85.8 | 3.0% | 4.8% vs RHP | 383 | 5.6% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 40 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kazuma Okamoto | 55 | 🟠 C | · | ❄ COLD | 58 | 0.201 | 91.8 | 9.7% | 29.7% vs RHP | 402 | 16.4% | 16.7% | 19.3% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Davis Schneider | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 83 | 0.155 | 88.3 | 9.5% | 20.0% vs RHP | 399 | 5.6% | 50.0% | 15.1% | 10 |
| 3 |
|
Jesús Sánchez | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 84 | 0.190 | 91.3 | 8.6% | 22.9% vs RHP | 398 | 11.5% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 23 |
| 4 |
|
George Springer | 44 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 110 | 0.167 | 88.3 | 7.3% | 21.4% vs RHP | 394 | 9.4% | 18.2% | 12.8% | 31 |
| 5 |
|
Alejandro Kirk | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 128 | 0.219 | 85.8 | 4.7% | 40.0% vs RHP | 394 | 6.2% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 11 |
| 6 |
|
Andres Gimenez | 31 | ⚪ D | · | · | 181 | 0.141 | 86.2 | 4.9% | 15.6% vs RHP | 391 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 26 |
| 7 |
|
Nathan Lukes | 23 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 204 | 0.077 | 86.1 | 2.4% | 5.9% vs RHP | 383 | 3.7% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 33 |