BAL
@
9:40p
SEA
Stadium Conditions
T-Mobile Park
First pitch 9:40p
· roof retractable
Park 0.95×
Wind 5 mph slight_out
75°F
retractable
+7
7 mph · out
87°F
9:40p
Boost for HR environment
+7
7 mph · out
87°F
10:40p
Boost for HR environment
+7
7 mph · out
87°F
11:40p
Boost for HR environment
+7
7 mph · out
87°F
12:40a
Boost for HR environment
+7
7 mph · out
87°F
1:40a
Boost for HR environment
⚪ Soft suppress · Combined 0.95
75°F, wind 5 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Dominic Canzone | 70 | 🟡 B | +370 | · | 18 | 0.287 | 93.2 | 11.5% | 30.6% vs RHP | 403 | 14.8% | 33.3% | 28.0% | 33 |
| 2 |
|
Luke Raley | 63 | 🔵 C+ | +400 | 🌧️ COOL | 35 | 0.262 | 90.7 | 11.6% | 37.8% vs RHP | 385 | 20.0% | 11.1% | 17.7% | 27 |
| 3 |
|
Julio Rodríguez ⚡ | 48 | ⚪ D | +390 | 🌤️ WARM | 102 | 0.186 | 90.4 | 8.6% | 18.2% vs RHP | 410 | 18.9% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 38 |
| 4 |
|
Cal Raleigh | 44 | ⚪ D | +220 | · | 128 | 0.157 | 87.5 | 9.9% | 14.6% vs RHP | 390 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 10.4% | 0 |
| 5 |
|
Randy Arozarena | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 132 | 0.162 | 91.7 | 7.8% | 20.7% vs RHP | 385 | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 30 |
| 6 |
|
J.P. Crawford | 41 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 144 | 0.181 | · | 8.6% | 33.3% vs RHP | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.7% | 5 |
| 7 |
|
Josh Naylor ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 170 | 0.117 | 87.8 | 6.5% | 17.5% vs RHP | 390 | 11.5% | 18.2% | 7.8% | 40 |
| 8 |
|
Cole Young | 35 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 175 | 0.123 | 87.9 | 6.5% | 9.5% vs RHP | 387 | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 47 |
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Pete Alonso | 66 | 🔵 C+ | +320 | · | 25 | 0.220 | 95.0 | 12.0% | 27.7% vs RHP | 398 | 19.7% | 38.5% | 25.4% | 39 |
| 2 |
|
Colton Cowser | 58 | 🟠 C | +575 | 🌤️ WARM | 49 | 0.180 | 86.5 | 12.1% | 24.1% vs RHP | 418 | 18.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 28 |
| 3 |
|
Coby Mayo ⚡ | 57 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 61 | 0.184 | 91.4 | 10.9% | 13.0% vs RHP | 407 | 15.8% | 33.3% | 17.8% | 21 |
| 4 |
|
Samuel Basallo | 57 | 🟠 C | +500 | 🌧️ COOL | 62 | 0.213 | 91.9 | 12.2% | 26.5% vs RHP | 400 | 14.6% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 25 |
| 5 |
|
Adley Rutschman | 54 | 🟠 C | +525 | · | 72 | 0.215 | 90.0 | 10.4% | 16.7% vs RHP | 400 | 13.5% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 30 |
| 6 |
|
Gunnar Henderson | 53 | 🟠 C | +475 | 🌧️ COOL | 77 | 0.200 | 89.3 | 10.0% | 16.7% vs RHP | 390 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 40 |
| 7 |
|
Jeremiah Jackson | 51 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 86 | 0.157 | 89.4 | 9.6% | 24.1% vs RHP | 391 | 12.2% | 100.0% | 13.0% | 6 |
| 8 |
|
Taylor Ward | 32 | ⚪ D | +525 | 🌤️ WARM | 188 | 0.095 | 89.7 | 7.2% | 5.3% vs RHP | 386 | 4.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 37 |
| 9 |
|
Leody Taveras | 32 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 194 | 0.127 | 86.8 | 6.9% | 11.5% vs RHP | 409 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 33 |